THREAD on VACCINATIONS: how are we doing in England?
Although this week has seen fewer jabs, we've still given a dose to 2.5 million people over last 7 days.
It's also good to see 2nd doses starting to take off & 42% of people over 16 have had a dose.🍾
BUT some concerns 1/6
There are differences in coverage by deprivation. For over 70s, the differences are definitely there but high coverage in all groups.
The differences are starker by ethnicity, with black populations having the lowest coverage. 2/6
As ages get younger, the disparities by deprivation & ethnicity get more pronounced. Although coverage is still increasing for 65-69 year olds, it seems likely that coverage in most deprived populations will stay much below that of the least deprived & lower than 70+s. 3/6
Looking at the younger shielding group, the differences are *even starker*. Although coverage still going up, perhaps only 70% of most deprived & 60% black shielding populations will get vaccinated at current rates.
This would leave many v. vulnerable people as we open up. 4/6
The latest ONS survey on vaccine hesitancy unsurpringly showed the same pattern. Almost half of people from black communities are hesitant.
Individuals, people of different ages & with different vulnerabilites will have different reasons for being hesitant. 5/6
We already know that deprived and BME populations are more exposed to, and more vulnerable from, Covid. We need to do a lot better at working to address vaccine concerns and listen to worries.
Otherwise a lot of people could get sick this summer as England opens up. 6/6
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LFDs are used to test people who don't have Covid symptoms - they give results in about 30 minutes.
The govt reckons about 30% of people with Covid don't have symptoms & this article suggested that asymptomic spread might account for 50% of cases. jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman… 2/19
So the point is to find people who have Covid but don't know they have Covid & stop them mixing with, and potentially infecting, other people. 3/19
They wanted to find out about clusters of symptoms and severity.
Only children who had had symptoms for at least 4 weeks were included.
Parents of 510 children filled out the survey, 69% from the UK, 18% from the US. Almost 60% of children had confirmed Covid, 40% suspected.
Ages were skewed to older children, most common ages was 9-12 yrs old. 12% of kids were asymptomatic, 74% were managed at home. 44% of kids had no pre-existing health problem (80% had no pre existing mental health concern).
LONG THREAD (21 tweets): As schools return this week in England, am I optimistic or pessimistic about Covid right now?
TLDR: Both - but veering pessimistic. But the policy shifts to move me into optimism are NOT that big!
Let’s start with the optimism & end with the worries.
2. The vaccine roll out is going amazingly well. Over 30% of adult population in England has now been vaccinated and we are on track to offer everyone a first dose by July – and perhaps even earlier. Uptake has also been much higher than anticipated.
3. Not just that, but the vaccines work better than expected. They are not only v effective at preventing illness, hospitalisation & death but are also effective at reducing transmission – this means vaxxed much less likely to spread covid to others.
As cases recede nationally, some areas remain stubbornly high. Many have been persistently high for months. Deprivation is an important aspect of this.
This is a tour of deprivation & covid & what it means
(21 tweets but pls read).
2. First, how is deprivation measured? Usually by the "Index of multiple Deprivation". This assigns a value to every neighbourhood (~7000 people) based on 7 domains of deprivation.
3. All neighbourhoods (technically MSOAs) are then ranked in order of deprivation and split into 5 equally sized groups ("quintiles"). Every person in population can then be assigned to one deprivation quintile from most deprived to least deprived based on where they live.
TLDR: There’s a lot to like about the roadmap – but it could be & should be made much more effective.
Because this will be tying current situation to the roadmap, I’m concentrating on English data
Read on… (22 tweets - sorry)
2. Firstly, cases across England are falling. This is good news but the pace of reduction is slowing.
England has the highest case rate in the UK and the nations with lower case rates (on the order of 100 cases/100,000 pop/week) are plateauing even more
3. The worry is that the more transmissible new strain + many people still out at work, often in non-Covid safe workplaces, means it might be hard to get much below 100/100K/wk , esp in deprived areas, even under current restrictions.
This article by @bealelab explaining the different Covid variants, possible impacts on vaccine effectiveness & future of the pandemic is quite simply one of the best I've ever read. lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/…
Some key bits highlighted below!!
This bit explains how vaccines tartget lots of different bits of Covid to provide protection - so that even if the virus gets better at one bit, vaccines can still work by stopping other bits. This is what the case with B117 (the Kent strain).
this section highlights the success of the UK vaccination programme so far