COVID sitrep: The situation in NHS hospitals continues to improve as new infections reach the lowest level since mid-September. Lots of green on the map now. Many patients now well enough to be cared for at home. Still lots going on though. 1/9
We now have fewer than 10,000 COVID patients in NHS hospitals, and the lowest number since 24th October. A great milestone but still a vast number for a single infectious disease. The NHS is a long way from business as usual. 2/9
National patterns can often hide regional variations but it’s great to see both hospital admissions and deaths from COVID now falling in every region of England. 3/9
COVID-19 is by far the leading cause of death so far in 2021 and remains a disease to take very seriously…. 4/9
….whilst (bizarrely) some still persist in denying the impact of the pandemic, it is clear that the 143,000 COVID deaths so far in the UK represent a huge increase on previous years. People didn't simply die of a different disease. 5/9
Outcomes for ICU patients are better than the 1st wave but we aren’t sure why. It may simply be that patients have fewer risk factors in the 2nd wave. We do know more about treating COVID but the NHS has also been under huge strain reducing the quality of patient care. 6/9
ICU staff in particular, must prepare for a large third wave we can't be sure won't happen. Vaccines may not prevent this. The public understood why patient care was compromised in waves 1 & 2 but future expectations will be much higher. This planning uses a lot of our time. 7/9
The unrelenting demands of the winter have taken a toll. NHS staff are badly in need of a rest as the second wave subsides and the lockdown relaxes. Announcements about pay haven’t helped. Nursing staff in particular are very upset about this. 8/9 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
The urgent need to get the NHS back to business as usual is understood by all, but we must work out how to care for our staff and clear the huge backlog of ‘usual’ patient care all while preparing for another major pandemic response. Our situation remains difficult. 9/9
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A family member asked me to explain why I wasn’t convinced by a clinical trial of ivermectin. Yet again (apologies) it’s complicated. But here’s ten things for the non-expert can look for to help them understand how much a clinical trial should influence patient care.
1. Beware the tabloid headline: We all want a nice simple message but science just isn’t like that. Clinical trials need careful nuanced interpretation. But media, politicians, and often researchers themselves, want a snappy success story. These are generally misleading.
2. Evidence before eminence: your first impressions should be made by the trial and the data, NOT the researcher(s), however brilliant they may be. In particular, if the reputation of one individual is used strongly in support of the trial findings, then be careful.
Sitrep: Yesterday marked a year since the first COVID-19 patient was admitted to @teamaccu@royallondonhosp. A year like no other. East London was badly hit by both the first and second waves. Many stories to tell. Here’s mine (long thread but easy read!). 1/22
The four hospitals in @NHSBartsHealth has treated more than 8000 patients with COVID-19. This was beyond our wildest imagination a year ago. Even the worst winter ‘flu epidemic was tiny by comparison. The entire organisation forced to configure around a single disease. 2/22
Our expanded @teamaccu has admitted 648 COVID patients in 12 months to an ICU which expanded three and a half times our original size to 150 beds. For ICU staff this is just mind boggling. An incredible logistical effort from staff of all grades from across @NHSBartsHealth. 3/22
Let's gloss over the use of percentages without explanation of what they mean, and the failure to quote a data source, and look at some facts....
Firstly, many NHS staff are not clinically trained eg porters, cleaners, managers, admin staff, etc. They don't have any more reason to understand vaccination than any other members of the public.
More positive news as new coronavirus infections subside in the UK. The NHS is looking to recovery from the impacts of COVID and planning the re-boot of usual healthcare which has suffered badly in the past 12 months. We have a huge backlog to clear. 1/10 bbc.co.uk/news/uk-562007…
Before we think about the recovery, the usual points need to be made – we still have more than 15,000 hospital in-patients with COVID…. 2/10
….and we still have more than 2000 COVID patients in ventilated intensive care beds (almost half the usual footprint of ICU in the whole of the UK). So still many months to go before the second wave is over for NHS staff. 3/10
Clinical trials are in the public eye once again, and Vitamin D for COVID is especially topical right now. Like everything in healthcare, the trials are complex, so here’s an explainer on them. These points are most important for doctors but relevant to us all. 1/15
One particular trial provoked debate this week. Enthusiasts insist it proves the role of Vitamin D in treating COVID but experts highlight numerous problems with how the research was done. These limitations mean the research should not, on its own, change patient care… 2/15
…because we need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of a trial to safely use the results to shape patient care. When non-experts get involved we have problems. Some doctors make these mistakes too I’m afraid. 3/15
New coronavirus infections are decreasing and 14 million people in the UK have received one vaccine dose. But the sitrep is that hospitals are still caring for 24,352 COVID patients – more than at the peak of the first wave. NHS staff cannot rest yet. 1/8 bbc.co.uk/news/health-56…
Despite the absurd claims of COVID sceptics, we have seen a huge number of excess deaths in the past 12 months, and well above the five-year average mortality rate. COVID remains the leading cause of death right now – many amongst working age people. 2/8
The pressure on the NHS remains extremely high and will be for months to come. This by @Zudin_P and @stevemathieu75 for @ICS_updates describing the vast effort needed to create extra Intensive Care beds across the UK. We still have more ICU patients than the first wave. 3/8