@DavidHenigUK highlights confusion in @thetimes today around good news re vaccine rollout and no downside of reduction in EU trade. This is because journalists not thinking through what is structural and what is timing consequences of #COVID19 and #Brexit
It is obviously good news in regards to avoiding excess deaths and opening the economy that vaccine rollout in UK going so well and hopefully other countries will catch up
When the economy opens up in UK and EU there will be rapid economic growth as pent up expenditure commences
If UK opens before rest of EU it will have growth blip earlier with EU’s arriving slightly later - in 6 months time I am sure they will both reached the same place which will still be lower than pre #COVID19
#COVID19 has structurally changed the nature of work (digital revolution brought forward) and so the office/cities in UK will not see the level of commuter again Cities will have to change and some office property owners will see a reduction in value of their buildings
On the other hand towns/villages will see increased occupancy/economic activity in the week Hence #COVID19 will have caused the levelling up agenda that the Government says it wants but potentially does not like if posh restaurants in Westminster etc disappear due to < trade
Similarly when the economy opens up trade between UK/EU will increase as economic activity rises BUT the #brexit structural change is that UK exports unlikely to return to pre Covid levels
Given non tariff barriers for goods (see my thread of last night) AND the restrictive clauses in EU/UK TCA which mean difficult/impossible for UK citizens to work in EU without working visa, many UK professional qualifications not being recognised so even with a visa many UK
Citizens not qualified to provide the service (even if they have done so for 20 years) AND in many areas (rules vary for each of 27 countries) UK based organisations cannot provide the service in EU now UK had left EEA
As a teaser working on your lap top on UK business from your Spanish property is likely to not be legal
Hope this helps to stimulate thought - the lack of discussion around loss of export markets has not had debate in UK that it requires So far because of #brexit travel restrictions we have only heard of musicians and fashion BUT in reality the lack of mutual recognition of
Professional qualifications is an enormous barrier to trade
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