PHE "Airborne transmission can occur in health settings in which...treatments...generate aerosols are performed... also occur in poorly ventilated indoor spaces particularly if individuals are in the same room together for an extended period of time"
6/19
This pattern of disproportionate impact on social and healthcare workers from non-white ethnic groups and first generation migrants to UK persisted
10/19
The reasons can be illustrated by the median ages of patients in the 3 groups affected by COVID
-patients who died (median age 83) @ONS
-hospital admissions (age 73) @ISARIC1
-ICU admissions (age 61) @ICNARC
Impact of vaccination is much slower in the younger groups
2/n
There's been evidence vaccination is impacting deaths in the older groups for some time
Nice to see this published
Working with @john_actuary from @COVID19actuary we’ve modelled impact of vaccination on
-deaths
-hospital admissions
-ICU admissions
Vaccinating just by age would have this impact on the three measures
The lag in the last two is because the groups differ.
Median ages
-deaths 83
-hospitalised 73
-ICU 61
So the cohort who might get to ICU have to wait for vaccination
If the graphs are adjusted to account for
-gp2 health/social care workers
-gp4 extremely clin vulnerable
-gp6 high risk
They look like this with lag slightly reduced (and the health service staff protected)
Vaccinating 15% of popln
-huge impact on deaths
-modest impact on ICU
Not sure altmetric is be-all & end-all but it looks like
the meta-analysis of ICU outcomes from COVID by @drrichstrong@adk300 has just become @Anaes_Journal no. 1 using that metric
Quite a feat during a pandemic while doing your day jobs
Well done🎩
Thanks @Anaes_Journal for publishing it and handling it so expertly and promptly, as usual
2/n
Unlike most papers this year it had a somewhat positive message showing how in-ICU mortality has fallen over the first months of the pandemic
- from around 60% in Jan-March
- to less than to 30% in May
An awful disease but one in which we have been making improvements