Thread by @AndyKimNJ

Agnes Chow just spent 24th birthday behind bars fighting for democracy in Hong Kong. While locked up, China this week imposed law meant to extinguish democracy once and for all. Here’s why Communist Party is terrified of this 24 yr old woman and others(THREAD) #StandWithHongKong

ORIGINAL BROKEN PROMISE: When Agnes was 7 months old, China agreed to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy for 50 years until the year 2047. When skeptics questioned China’s promise during the 1997 handover, China’s premier said China “would prove her words by her deeds.” 2/19

ONE COUNTRY TWO SYSTEMS: The Basic Law agreement sets forward "ultimate aim" for chief executive to be chosen by "universal suffrage." Agnes phrases it quite simply as “We want to choose our future by ourselves.” 3/19

EROSION: China began chipping away. 2003-introduced anti-subversion law. 2012, pushed compulsory “patriotic” curriculum in schools. This brought 15 yr old Agnes Chow, Joshua Wong and other teenagers together for first time and gave many youth first taste of protest. 4/19

2014: China tried to redefine HK’s autonomy. For 79 days, hundreds of thousands took to the streets with umbrellas initially to shield from pepper spray. Agnes and others formed a full blown Umbrella movement. While they fell short, they left signs saying “we will be back” 5/19

2019: In the aftermath of Beijing trying to impose an extradition law on Hong Kong, we saw the rise of the largest pro-democracy protest since Tiananmen Square. The Communist Party was terrified. Violence erupted as police advanced carrying signs “disperse or we fire” 6/19

KILL SHOT: In some ways Communist party was saved by COVID, which brought these 2019 seismic protests to abrupt end. During the lockdown, China went in for the kill. They are now trying to do as much damage as possible before the pandemic subsided. 7/19

They passed a new security law, arrested Agnes and others, postponed 2020 local elections, and then this week passed election reforms gutting the 1997 handover agreement and Basic Law. 8/19

STACK THE DECK: These reforms place even more Beijing loyalists into the election committee in Hong Kong that selects Chief Executive. This committee is also now able to screen candidates who run for any office to make sure “only patriots” can govern. Agnes doesn’t qualify. 9/19

CHINA’S ENDGAME: China says it will still deliver universal suffrage, but their plan all along was to control all candidate nominations so HongKongers have no choice but vote for Beijing loyalists. Nothing but facade of democracy by corrupting what it means to be a patriot 10/19

Beijing probably feels pretty good this week. Their actions aimed to break the spirit, to destroy lingering hope. They wanted to show strength, but what they really showed was fear. Fear that the courage of a 24 yr old woman and other HongKongers could become contagious. 11/19

China should be scared, their push for Beijing nationalism is clearly backfiring. Survey in 2019 showed that most people Agnes age(18-29y) see themselves as Hongkonger, and almost no one called themselves Chinese.
economist.com/graphic-detail… 12/19

WHY DOES IT MATTER TO US? @SecBlinken is meeting China this week. Before he left, I told Blinken this is not just about HongKong but also about whether we can trust China’s handshake. If they break promises to their people, how do we trust on trade/military or anything? 13/19

At his speech at Davos this year, Pres. Xi called on the countries of the world to ‘uphold the common values of humanity’, including ‘democracy’. This feels like 1997 all over. China saying they uphold these values and promises, but in the end, what do their deeds say? 14/19

HER DEEDS: To repeat the Chinese premier in 1997, China “would prove her words by her deeds.” Those words meant to reassure, but China’s deeds since have proven that their word cannot be trusted. Agnes and youth saw through their hollow words. 15/19

HOW DOES THIS END? It’s hard not to feel down after China’s suppression this week. Nations around world condemned the action this week, but it will take more than that to change calculus of Chinese Gov that is also engaged in genocide against Uyghurs and feeling little heat 16/19

One development to watch is Intl companies moving out of Hong Kong. Some surveys say 4 in 10 are considering leaving. Others are rethinking their ties, but they should be rethinking about posture to China as a whole, not just Hong Kong. japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/2… 17/19

Changes made by Beijing remove some benefits for multinationals to be in Hong Kong, but divesting from HK alone won’t change Beijing’s calculus. If foreign companies step away from HK while still engaging with China as a whole, it’s the people of HK who will suffer most. 18/19

China should immediately release Agnes, Joshua, and others locked up. Suppressing voices of youth is cowardice. I remember a young HongKonger said “If we shut up then we lose completely.” To the many youth in HK and many others that join them, I hope you keep making noise.(END)