Thread by @ColdChainShane

A legacy of Brexit will be the fallacy that stockpiling is THE way to anticipate and smooth supply chain shocks - I fear that this is overstated as the way to explain jan trade figures - esp in food- 🧵1/

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1371033087950340097

Stockpiling is one limited tactic that was employed going into Jan (and other ‘no deals’) - reality is that (1) businesses also planned to buy/sell less. Brexit brinkmanship added to a general impulse to limit activity and reduce risks - i.e political chaos affected confidence 2

2) through choice and necessity, consumer choice has been drastically simplified over 12 months of Covid - mainly because half food chain is basically shut (hospitality) but also grocery ranges have been dramatically curtailed and promotions/discounts limited 3/

3) consumer behaviour in reaction to jan lockdown was v different people didn’t ‘panic buy’ - we actually saw a bigger than usual version of the usual post Xmas ‘belt tightening’ + consumers have less money and are far more cautious this time 4/

This all matters because referencing ‘stockpiling’ as a catch-all is a political / media convenience that downplays how fundamentally things are changing - it also downplays the complexity of all this for businesses and the sheer hard work in keeping show on the road 5/

It will take time to understand the legacy of 3yrs of perpetual crisis in our food industry - Brexit (man-made crisis) meets Covid (unexpected disaster) - both will have a lasting impact and our supply chains forever changed - lots of export business will not return 6/

Stockpiling is a crutch that government in particular relies on too much - it suggests that businesses are less affected by the brinkmanship, posturing and reg chaos than they actually are - and shows a clear tendency to hear what they want to hear (undermining business trust) 7/

Gov has got some things right (tactically at least) in past 12 months - e.g support though Covid (for some not all), the decision to delay import controls this week - but overall the focus on message, the consistent and obvious prioritisation of the politically expedient ... 8/

and the obvious lack of strategic grip - especially in how to support our EU exporters - all played into the cratering of confidence in December / Jan and it is a long way back from here. End/