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trylks Profile picture
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Mar 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Several things may be considered as "triggers" of an AI winter, e.g
—"aging" of teams
—not meeting investor expectations after diminishing returns
—whistleblowers ending the hype by exposing lies
—…

TBH: I think those are symptoms, but not the root cause
The root cause is: "running out of hype"

The biggest threat (TBT) for GPT-4 is not bad practices in OpenAI, investors disappointed with GPT-3, or Gary Marcus calling BS on GPT-3

TBT is finding something to sell not sold for GPT-3 yet

IMHO — as always
Related
I like the quietness of the winter










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More from @trylks

trylks Profile picture
Dec 30, 2021
Both web3 and the metaverse jeopardize untapping the relevance of crypto: “X as code”:
$BTC: money
$ETH: contracts

Software is eating the world. Eating the web or VR only delays the unavoidable

Relevant: create value, solve problems, do things that matter, fix what sucks,…
Web3 is a terrible choice of name too

Crypto is undoing a lot of the centralization in web 2.0*, and requires technical knowledge. Today, it should be 1.2 IMHO

* Similarly to Jamstack: less PHP, more REST & static pages. Nobody promised linear evolution…
Many people expect crypto will become easier, more polished, and gain mass adoption

It is about freedom & DIY, avoiding intermediaries & centralization, much like GNU/Linux. It's not about getting rich. In fact normally freedom comes at a cost

When mass adoption for GNU/Linux?
Read 4 tweets
trylks Profile picture
Mar 12, 2021
After watching "Counterfeiting Kills Economies (And Helps Them Too)"

I would like to see a fight:

— Companies innovating too fast for patents to be useful for them

vs

— Companies with business models relying on patents to impede competitors' innovation
imdb.com/title/tt961786…
The documentary is coming from Amazon, which has an "interesting" relationship with intelectual property

As more companies join the debate, data about the impact of patents on innovation and economies should be presented, to defend each case
Theory and practice do not always match, and the reality is dynamic. What was true one century ago may not be true now. The system needs maintenance

For example, Tesla applies the open source philosophy to their patents, and they seem to be doing well
tesla.com/en_IE/blog/all…
Read 5 tweets
trylks Profile picture
Feb 12, 2021
I am going to make a short thread to explain how Sutskever's tweet signals (IMHO) the beginning of the next AI winter

You may understand my use of a pseudonym to comment on "work ethics" on the Internet, as potential or current employers might read it
If Sutskever's opinion were not relevant enough, it has been seconded by other famous AI researchers, like Brockman, arguably making a point through example, and not just words

I am personally never sure if Domingos' "factual" descriptions are criticizing or supporting making a deal with Moloch for efficiency

Arguably, if you have the stamina to work 2x hours, you will get 2x results, all other things being equal
Read 13 tweets
trylks Profile picture
Aug 14, 2020
Sudden realization: automation + Jevons paradox INCREASE BS jobs








Checking the oldest links in my Pocket reading list

It would be interesting if most news (like this) were live, updated with new data, maintaining the URL (w/ diff?)

BTW: prediction: knowledge jobs will keep increasing in quantity, decreasing in quality
Now this is a "keeping tweets for posterity" thread

Mostly random ideas, like this thread about patents:
Read 6 tweets
trylks Profile picture
Aug 10, 2020
Substraction thread
Particularly relevant for time management
Set an aspirational hourly rate, it will help you to quantify the importance of activities and stay focused
Read 11 tweets
trylks Profile picture
Jun 11, 2020
Not enough has been written about how the Dunning-Kruger effect is a self-fulfilled prophecy by the Thomas theorem:

1. Redefining mediocre as excellent

2. Creating a kakonomy (lemons ≻ peaches), with positive feedback loop & Matthew effect

3. Resulting in a race to the bottom
The Matthew effect, e.g. network effect, impedes beating the mediocre, e.g. blub paradox and market dynamics

The peaches result not indistinguishable from the lemons but actually worse, possibly even "harbingers of failure", even at an axiological or first principles level
Differently from other multipolar traps, the main causes are epistemic and the strength of numbers; not a moral hazard. If there is a moral decision, it is beyond the comprehension of the mediocre majority

The few peaches, irrelevant as they may be, face a complicated decision:
Read 13 tweets

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