1/ What Drives Closed-End Fund Discounts? Evidence from COVID-19 (Ma)

"CEFs with higher sentiment beta or higher retail ownership experienced a larger increase in discounts after the February 2020 COVID-19 outbreak."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "Across different CEF categories, I normalize sentiment beta and scale it by the mean for the corresponding category (equity, municipal FI, taxable FI, or other)."

"Liquidity Gap captures the difference between the illiquidity of underlying assets and that of the CEF shares."
3/ "The decrease in AAII sentiment occurs around the COVID-19 outbreak with a sizable magnitude of 26.6%.

"The results in Table 2 complement the graphical evidence in Figure 2, showing that the average CEF discounts increased substantially after the outbreak of COVID-19."
4/ "Results suggest that CEFs with higher BetaS (sentiment beta; shares subject to more noise trading) experienced a larger increase in discounts after the outbreak of COVID-19. (In terms of economic magnitude, the standard deviation of BetaS is 1.33 from Table 1.)
5/ "The trends of average discounts for high- and low-sentiment groups are parallel prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 on February 24. This suggests that the parallel trends assumption is satisfied and provides evidence on the validity of the difference-in-differences analysis."
6/ "Here, I use retail ownership as an alternative measure of sentiment.

"Results suggest that CEFs with higher RO experienced a larger increase in discounts after the outbreak of COVID-19. (In terms of economic magnitude, the standard deviation of RO is 0.15 from Table 1.)"
7/ "Results suggest our main difference-in-differences results in Table 3 are not sensitive to the use of the scaled or unscaled versions of sentiment beta. (In terms of economic magnitude, untabulated results show that the standard deviation of the unscaled beta is 0.92.)
8/ "Underlying assets tend to be less liquid than CEF stocks (Table 1), but CEFs with higher sentiment β or higher RO did not have significantly smaller liquidity gaps after the outbreak."

"Our results are also unlikely to be driven by expense ratio, payout ratio, or leverage."
9/ Related research:

Strategic Timing in Closed-End Fund Portfolio Holdings Disclosure


Exploiting Closed-End Fund Discounts: A Systematic Examination of Alphas

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More from @ReformedTrader

14 Mar
1/ Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets (Jim Rogers)

"History teaches us that appears undisputed today will look very different tomorrow. The most stable and predictable societies have undergone major upheavals. " (p. 29)

amazon.com/dp/B008WOUFIS/
2/ "The Austro-Hungarian empire, the glittering jewel of central Europe, was a vast, international center of wealth in 1914. The Vienna stock exchange at the time had something like four thousand members. Within four years, the Austro-Hungarian empire disappeared.
3/ "Pick any year you want, and then move forward ten or fifteen years. Take 1925, when again widespread peace, prosperity, and stability prevailed. How did things look in 1935? In 1940?
Read 15 tweets
14 Mar
1/ Tesla Effect and the Mispricing of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (Saengchote)

"Many mispriced SPACs in 2020 were linked to electric vehicle-related businesses (“Tesla effect”), raising concern whether investors understand what they are buying."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "Historically, most SPACs have traded at $10 per unit all the way until merger completion. However, many SPACs in 2020 traded at prices far above $10 despite being combined into the new business at approximately $10 per share."
3/ "In 2019, SPACs traded close to $10, on average. For 2020 announcements, the jump in SPAC prices was greater and was more pronounced for EV SPACs.

"The parallel trend provides comfort for the use of the difference-in-differences method for our regression analysis."
Read 4 tweets
13 Mar
1/ Strategic Timing in Closed-End Fund Portfolio Holdings Disclosure (Kallenos, Lesmond, Nishiotis)

"Managers of CEFs trading at high discounts are more likely to disclose earlier to reduce discounts & protect themselves from activist investor attacks."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "In 2004, the SEC adopted a new rule regarding portfolio holdings disclosure. One of the main new requirements is the mandatory quarterly disclosure of portfolio holdings of every registered management investment company within a 60-day period from the period-end date."
3/ "𝐹𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑡 is the filing distance variable that counts the days between the report period-end date and the report filing date.

"𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑡 is the average daily discount between the report date and one day before the filing date."
Read 10 tweets
13 Mar
1/ Common Sense: The Investor's Guide to Equality, Opportunity, and Growth (Joel Greenblatt)

"How can we use the strengths of our government, the dynamism of our private sector, and the power of incentives to achieve more opportunity for everyone?" (p.6)

amazon.com/Common-Sense-I…
2/ "Thinking like a long-term investor rather than an accountant at the Congressional Budget Office could come in handy as we try to help our workforce navigate new disruptions." (p. 2)

Greenblatt discusses this book in a March 2021 interview:
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Read 65 tweets
13 Mar
1/ The Long Run Is Lying to You (Asness)

"Valuation changes unnecessarily reduce the precision of our estimates of true long-term expected market and factor returns. The usual examination of long-run average returns is not all it’s cracked up to be."

aqr.com/Insights/Persp…
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"While 6.5% a year is what you actually earned in the S&P 500, 5.2% a year is what you might long-term forecast going forward assuming neither mean reversion in CAPE (i.e., falling from its high ending value in our sample) or continued permanent expansion."
3/ Fixed Income

"A whole lot of the giant (for bonds) 4.4% a year over cash from 1984–2020 comes from the massive long-term fall in bond yields over this period. Again, I don’t think anyone should build that into their long-term estimate of bond expected return going forward."
Read 10 tweets
9 Mar
1/ Adaptive Markets (Andrew Lo)

"Finance isn’t physics, despite the similarities between the physics of heat conduction and the mathematics of derivative securities." (p. 10)

Feynman: “Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings.”

amazon.com/Adaptive-Marke…
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"This oscillating between wisdom and madness isn’t a pathology. It’s human nature." (p.9)
3/ "The stock market punished Morton Thiokol, not on the day of the report (five months after the space shuttle accident), nor after Feynman’s brilliant live demonstration of the defective O-rings, but on January 28, 1986 itself, within minutes of the Challenger explosion. Image
Read 82 tweets

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