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14 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
With volumes now expected to increase considerably, what possible end dates are there for the adult vaccination programme?

Assuming 4m a week 1st doses could be around three days after the lifting of all restrictions (21 June) - nearly a month later if we only average 3m.
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Once 1st doses are complete, there should be a rapid completion of 2nd doses, with no need to stick to the longer interval. So end of August at the latest, but maybe by mid July if we can sustain the higher level.

2/4
I've assumed a slightly lower take-up for Groups 10-12. You could argue that my assumptions are a little high, but then the aim should be to get as many as possible to be vaccinated. And the latest ONS estimate is that only 6% are hesitant across all age groups.

3/4
We've only achieved c2.5m a week recently, but the NHS has told centres to prepare for a roughly doubled rate from tomorrow for the next couple of weeks, so 3m to 4m would appear to be a suitable range to use.
4/4

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
16 Mar
The latest ONS data show further proportionate falls in the oldest age groups since mid-Jan, benchmarking against the under 70s.

Age 80+ deaths are now 45% lower, age 70-79 are 37% lower.

What might that mean in terms of lives saved?

1/4
Overall COVID deaths in the latest week were around a third lower than they would have been without the vaccine. The total saved by this estimate is now over 4,000 lives.

It's only an estimate of course, we shall probably never know the exact number.

2/4
The rapid fall in infections remains the greatest influence in the overall reduction in deaths we've seen. But we can now clearly see the relative additional impact on those vaccinated first in the faster falls of those age groups.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
8 Mar
A detailed survey from @ONS today on vaccine hesitancy. Overall, the latest figures suggest the lowest hesitancy figures yet.

At 6%, it's halved from Jan (11%) which halved from Dec (22%). A very positive trend!

The age distribution shows the younger are more hesitant.

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Women appear slightly more hesitant, especially at younger ages. We explore one possible reason later.

Full report here: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

2/9 Image
The most concerning feature of take-up is of course the ethnic differential. This survey is consistent with data for those actually taking up the vaccine that confirm the black community in particular is much more hesitant.

3/9 Image
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
5 Mar
The latest ONS infectivity data suggests continued strong falls in infections across all four countries, with typically reductions of around a third in a week.
Starting with England, which falls from 0.69% to 0.45%, down 35%. That's now 1-220 of the community population.
1/8
Wales falls by 27%, down from 0.48% to 0.35%, or 1-285 of the population.

Scotland is down from 0.45% to 0.30%, a 33% fall, or 1- 335.

Finally N Ireland falls by 40% from 0.52% to 0.31% or 1-325.

2/8
Regionally most areas are falling although the ONS says that there is more uncertainty in the E Midlands, North East and East. The NE is now double the lowest areas.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
4 Mar
Thu Vaccine Update
279k 1st doses, total now 20.98m.
68k 2nd doses, total now 964k.

1st doses are barely half last week, the 7 day total falls again to 2.3m.
2nd doses continue to reach new highs, with the 7 day total now 263k.

England data and ethnicity take-up next.

1/4
England's weekly results show that the 65-69 range (Group 5) is approaching completion. Hopefully next week we'll also have data for 60 to 65 as this was opened up widely a few days ago.

This means we are now starting to vaccinate the working population.

2/4
The weekly openSAFELY report still shows a wide take-up difference by ethnicity, weeks after groups should have been completed. For age 80+ the variation is between 94.5% down to 65.4%.

The range by deprivation is between 88% and 95%, so it's not just that causing it.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
4 Mar
,The latest #REACT study (Round 9b) on infectivity from @imperialcollege suggests continuing falls but at a slower rate in the second half of Feb, with R around 0.86 by the end of the period. (4th to 23rd Feb), having been 0.73 earlier a few weeks earlier.

A thread....

1/12
Starting with the summary details.

Prevalence is put at 0.49% (0.44%, 0.55%) for Rd 9, although slightly lower in the second half at 0.47%. These rates are less than a third of those seen in Rd 8 just a month earlier. That's great news!

2/12
The results suggest that R was around 0.73 during the fastest period of the fall (halving time 15 days), but has now eased off to 0.86 (31days), with notable regional variations causing the increase in R.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
3 Mar
Wed vaccine update:
1st doses: 263k daily, 20.74m total.
2nd doses: 51k daily, 895k total.

1st doses are 20% down on last week, the 7 day total falls to 2.5m.

2nd doses reach a new high since deferred to 12 weeks, and the 7 day total is now 226k.

S/W/NI next...

1/4 Image
Scotland's dashboard now has some neat graphs, which show the total's vaccinated of each age-group, both in total, and with a build up over time.

A clear visual presentation, and great take-up rates too!

2/4 ImageImage
Meanwhile Wales has restated its take-up rates to exclude from the denominators those who have recently died, thus resulting in them increasing. eg Over 80s was 91.2% two days ago and is now 93.9%. This reduces the % not vaccinated by 30% in this age group.

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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