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8 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
A detailed survey from @ONS today on vaccine hesitancy. Overall, the latest figures suggest the lowest hesitancy figures yet.

At 6%, it's halved from Jan (11%) which halved from Dec (22%). A very positive trend!

The age distribution shows the younger are more hesitant.

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Women appear slightly more hesitant, especially at younger ages. We explore one possible reason later.

Full report here: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

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The most concerning feature of take-up is of course the ethnic differential. This survey is consistent with data for those actually taking up the vaccine that confirm the black community in particular is much more hesitant.

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Those in poor health are less likely to be hesitant. It's maybe not surprising given they are likely to perceive themselves as more vulnerable to the virus and thus the risk/reward balance is weighted in favour of taking it.

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
5 Mar
The latest ONS infectivity data suggests continued strong falls in infections across all four countries, with typically reductions of around a third in a week.
Starting with England, which falls from 0.69% to 0.45%, down 35%. That's now 1-220 of the community population.
1/8
Wales falls by 27%, down from 0.48% to 0.35%, or 1-285 of the population.

Scotland is down from 0.45% to 0.30%, a 33% fall, or 1- 335.

Finally N Ireland falls by 40% from 0.52% to 0.31% or 1-325.

2/8
Regionally most areas are falling although the ONS says that there is more uncertainty in the E Midlands, North East and East. The NE is now double the lowest areas.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
4 Mar
Thu Vaccine Update
279k 1st doses, total now 20.98m.
68k 2nd doses, total now 964k.

1st doses are barely half last week, the 7 day total falls again to 2.3m.
2nd doses continue to reach new highs, with the 7 day total now 263k.

England data and ethnicity take-up next.

1/4
England's weekly results show that the 65-69 range (Group 5) is approaching completion. Hopefully next week we'll also have data for 60 to 65 as this was opened up widely a few days ago.

This means we are now starting to vaccinate the working population.

2/4
The weekly openSAFELY report still shows a wide take-up difference by ethnicity, weeks after groups should have been completed. For age 80+ the variation is between 94.5% down to 65.4%.

The range by deprivation is between 88% and 95%, so it's not just that causing it.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
4 Mar
,The latest #REACT study (Round 9b) on infectivity from @imperialcollege suggests continuing falls but at a slower rate in the second half of Feb, with R around 0.86 by the end of the period. (4th to 23rd Feb), having been 0.73 earlier a few weeks earlier.

A thread....

1/12
Starting with the summary details.

Prevalence is put at 0.49% (0.44%, 0.55%) for Rd 9, although slightly lower in the second half at 0.47%. These rates are less than a third of those seen in Rd 8 just a month earlier. That's great news!

2/12
The results suggest that R was around 0.73 during the fastest period of the fall (halving time 15 days), but has now eased off to 0.86 (31days), with notable regional variations causing the increase in R.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
3 Mar
Wed vaccine update:
1st doses: 263k daily, 20.74m total.
2nd doses: 51k daily, 895k total.

1st doses are 20% down on last week, the 7 day total falls to 2.5m.

2nd doses reach a new high since deferred to 12 weeks, and the 7 day total is now 226k.

S/W/NI next...

1/4 Image
Scotland's dashboard now has some neat graphs, which show the total's vaccinated of each age-group, both in total, and with a build up over time.

A clear visual presentation, and great take-up rates too!

2/4 ImageImage
Meanwhile Wales has restated its take-up rates to exclude from the denominators those who have recently died, thus resulting in them increasing. eg Over 80s was 91.2% two days ago and is now 93.9%. This reduces the % not vaccinated by 30% in this age group.

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
2 Mar
The latest antibody data from @ONS shows levels continuing to increase, especially in older age groups now being vaccinated.

This data is for 15/1 to 11/2 - note that it takes 2-3 weeks for antibodies to form, so not all those jabbed recently will have tested positive.

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England increases to 23.3% (18.5% two weeks ago)
Wales: 16.4% (14.4%)
Scotland: 13.1% (11.7%)
N Ireland: 15.9% (13.6%)

The last survey was 5/1 to 1/2 - note the 4 week periods overlap.

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Look at the increase in Over 80s in England, up from 40.9% two weeks ago to 56.4%!

75-79 has doubled from 12.4% to 24.9% too.

The differential in the oldest age group is much less clear in other countries though.

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
16 Feb
The CMI has now published it's latest weekly analysis of COVID excess mortality on an age-standardised basis. It now estimates 104,600 excess deaths, with 42% in the second wave.

A few more observations follow below.

1/4
We can see how there has already been around 4% (of a full year's deaths) excess so far in 2021.

This graph, which compares a year with the previous one, will abruptly change direction in late March as 2020 worsened, but for now it helps show the quantum of variance.

2/4
We can see here that male mortality in all age groups over 45 has been around 50% higher than normal in recent weeks. COVID doesn't just affect the elderly or very sick.

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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