Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ Legal action, Northern Ireland Protocol, the Single Market and salami tactics.

In "Yes, Prime Minister" the effectiveness of the nuclear deterrent is challenged through the 'salami' hypothetical.

The EU faces a similar dilemma on the Protocol.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1371366926518263812

2/ Salami tactics is where, when confronted with a really powerful but binary deterrent (like nuclear weapons or tearing up the Protocol and building a border), you achieve your goals bit by bit, never taking any one specific step so dramatic it justifies that deterrent's use.

3/ This is to an extent the situation the EU finds itself on the receiving end of with regard to Northern Ireland.

As part of the WA Boris Johnson agreed to put a goods border inside his own territory thus preserving the Single Market... while promising his own side he didn't.

4/ The WA is intended to protect the integrity of the Single Market, and there's just no way to do that without many of the checks and trade frictions that give the lie to Johnson's 'no border' fiction.

Enter salami.

5/ The UK's approach seems to be chipping away at what's in the WA by bit by bit eroding some of the commitments it made on checks and implementation.

The issue for the EU is, each of these issues would sound ridiculous as the basis to tear up the Protocol.

"Sausages? Really?"

6/ There is no clear line of demarcation between what constitutes an unacceptable threat to the Single Market and what's merely annoying. Drawing it on any individual UK measure feels like an over-reaction.

Legal action is supposed to offer a 3rd way forward.

7/ Taking the UK to a dispute through the arbitration mechanisms in the WA is precisely what is supposed to allow the EU to address problems without having to resort to the binary choice of "withdraw and build a border potentially restarting the Troubles or suck it up."

8/ The challenge is this may only be delaying the problem.

UK compliance with litigation outcomes are uncertain, and endlessly litigating every aspect of the Protocol suits no one but the lawyers.

9/ Therefore at the moment if you take the Northern Ireland issue in complete isolation, the incentives support the UK continuing to salami slice its way out of some of the commitments it made in the WA and for the EU to scream loudly about them, seek legal recourse, and sweat.

10/ The challenge for both sides of course is that the Northern Ireland issue can't be isolated.

The UK and EU need good, constructive relationships at every level on a thousand issues. Ceaseless Protocol guerilla lawfare risks poisoning dialogues everywhere else.

/end