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15 Mar, 8 tweets, 2 min read
Two very interesting elections this week in Europe, one yesterday and one to come. First results in German regional elections- more good news for the Greens, worst result ever in both Länder for the CDU (though still 2nd in both). Note too significant reverses for far right AfD.
At one time they were written about as the coming force in German politics, part of the populist wave. Yet even in a pandemic with the govt being criticised for incompetence, they haven’t benefitted, they’ve gone into reverse. Had they done well we’d have prob heard no end of it.
Much more than we’ll hear about the Greens continuing their winning run.

Meanwhile CDU under a cloud as a result of a perceived slow vaccine rollout out, accusations of incompetence and worse, corruption. Over the past week 3 govt MPs have resigned amid corruption allegations.
Two of those MPs resigned over allegations with regards to face mask contracts. Local reporters suggesting the results may negatively affect Armin Laschet’s chances of succeeding Merkel in September. politico.eu/article/anothe…
Meanwhile voting is already underway for the Dutch elections. 🇳🇱 has a...fragmented political system (0.67% threshold for parties to gain representation). Rutte is seeking a fourth term- if re-elected, when Merkel goes he’ll be 2nd longest serving EU head of GOVT (after Orban).
Dutch Labour Party had a catastrophic showing in 2017 (lost 29 seats)- looks like they might go up a bit but no sign of a major revival. Dutch Greens similarly lacklustre. As elsewhere in Europe, [Dutch] social democracy thus looks to remain completely enfeebled.
.@EuropeElects polling average suggests that the current governing parties have a 50/50 chance of retaining their majority-they note would be the first time since 1998 that a governing majority retained it between elections.
Rutte's VVD in particular has retained a pandemic bounce- averaging at about 24%.

All 150 seats are up. Election night (Wednesday) will be a fascinating one.

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More from @lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture
16 Mar
Wow. Huge news. First by-election of the Parliament, right in the centre of the “red wall” where so much of the shifts of our political geography are taking place. Tories have targeted it for the last two cycles, likely thwarted last time by v high Brexit Party vote. Image
Has been Labour in one form or another since 1945. A test as to how permanent the 2019 Tory coalition might have been and indeed whether the electoral map can be further expanded now the BXP is largely off the scene (though Reform will presumably contest)
Big test for Starmer just at a point where the polling Gods are no longer with him. If he were to lose it atop of a poor locals result it would be massively damaging for his authority and his pitch as the electable figure who would be taken seriously by traditional Lab voters.
Read 5 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
15 Mar
Barrister Harriet Johnson tells @Maitlis: “I and others in my profession are seeing a growing body of evidence that police are institutionally misogynist. I see rape victims blamed, belittled, ridiculed and ignored by officers who are supposed to be supporting them.” #Newsnight
“I see police officers who just don’t believe women until the man who has raped them does it again and suddenly their evidence is not only creditable but vital.”
Ngozi Fulani, CEO Sistah Space: “Missing from the misogyny is racism...it seems that black women who go through domestic abuse, who are missing or who are murdered we don’t get the same response, we don’t get the outcry, we don’t get the concern, the public coming out for us.”
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
15 Mar
Even if the EMA reports back tomorrow and concludes there are no problems, the idea this won’t affect AZ take-up in the countries involved (in some cases already low) is surely fanciful.
Eg FT reports that 61% of France’s AZ stock had been unused as of last Thursday.
This is now the second time some EU countries have disregarded the EMA's advice on the Oxford/AZ vaccine (the first being that many govts opted not to give it to older people).
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
15 Mar
Data from ONS shows that Covid caused more death in a single year (2020) than any other infectious and parasitic disease in a century.

Also destroys the idea NHS was simply in a typical winter. Says in last week of Jan 5000 English ICU beds were occupied. 3000 would be normal.
Economic data also shows that in many industries, vacancies fell below even their 2008 level.
But unlike 2008 UK average house prices have continued to rise despite a large fall in national income-reaching a record high in December of £252k- a yearly increase of 8.5%.

Possible reasons: different type of economic crisis/pent up demand from early lockdown/govt intervention
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
14 Mar
Met statement says there will be a review into tonight’s events but defends overall approach: “Police must act for people's safety, this is the only responsible thing to do. The pandemic is not over and gatherings of people...are still not safe.” news.met.police.uk/news/statement…
So MET not retreating over this. All eyes on the politicians over the next 24 hours,
So the answer to this was that most of the senior politicians (Johnson, Patel, Starmer) are expressing total confidence in the Commissioner of the Met, despite the fact she’s taking the complete opposite position to them on police’s handling of the Clapham vigil.
Read 5 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
13 Mar
The police were already staring down the barrel of a potentially profound crisis of confidence, especially among women. That just got worse. Parliament is going to demand answers on Monday and ministers almost certainly before that.
Coming days are going to consist of a great deal of political pressure on the Commissioner of the Met to provide an account as to what happened and what went wrong. Secondary pressure on ministers- should special dispensation have been made for this event to go ahead officially?
Had it done so would this have happened?
Read 8 tweets

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