Wow. Huge news. First by-election of the Parliament, right in the centre of the “red wall” where so much of the shifts of our political geography are taking place. Tories have targeted it for the last two cycles, likely thwarted last time by v high Brexit Party vote.
Has been Labour in one form or another since 1945. A test as to how permanent the 2019 Tory coalition might have been and indeed whether the electoral map can be further expanded now the BXP is largely off the scene (though Reform will presumably contest)
Big test for Starmer just at a point where the polling Gods are no longer with him. If he were to lose it atop of a poor locals result it would be massively damaging for his authority and his pitch as the electable figure who would be taken seriously by traditional Lab voters.
Would imagine Labour will move the writ to be held on local Election Day- boost turnout, contain damage with other stories being around if it’s bad news
The local elections in May in Hartlepool were already set to be...interesting

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More from @lewis_goodall

17 Mar
Exciting night ahead in Dutch politics 👇👇
Thoughts and prayers with Dutch election night gfx teams Image
Mark Rutte looks set for a fourth term as Prime Minister in the Netherlands-his VVD looks set to gain several seats. Liberal, pro-EU D66 a big winner gaining 8 seats. Wilders’ Far Right PVV fall back, as do the Greens. The once powerful Dutch Labour still enfeebled and stagnant.
Read 9 tweets
17 Mar
This is the letter from NHS senior leadership outlining vaccine changes- “supply constraint means vaccination centres and community pharmacy led local vaccination services should close infilled books from week commencing 29th March” ImageImageImage
“The govt’s Vaccines Task Force have now notified us that there will be a significant reduction in weekly supply from manufacturers in the week commencing March 29th- meaning volumes for first doses will be significantly constrained.”

Predicted this will continue for 4 weeks.
This has a very different emphasis to that of Matt Hancock's in his briefing- who is instead saying he wants to vaccinate all vulnerable people in the over 50 group before moving on to lower age groups.
Read 6 tweets
17 Mar
Some disturbing numbers right at the start of the NAO report on education and the early pandemic:

- 15% reduction in referrals to children's social care services April-August
- 30% time gap between high income/ low income pupils on home learning
- 36% growth in attainment gap
NAO's key findings

1) Says DfE did not develop an overarching plan to deal with the crisis til end of June. The Dept had no pre-existing plan to deal with a major emergency of national school closures, only localised ones, like flooding.
2) Schools risk being left severely out of pocket by the crisis. NAO says as of January DfE had paid or intended to pay schools £133m (or only 73%) of the £181m they had claimed for their Covid costs. Image
Read 11 tweets
17 Mar
17 minutes in and we haven’t heard from a woman yet. #pmqs
20 minutes...
Was 21 minutes into PMQs before a woman was heard from (Caroline Lucas)- despite the debate being dominated about women’s rights, talk of what “women think” and so on
Read 5 tweets
17 Mar
Keir Starmer says the death of Sarah Everard “must be a turning point in how we tackle violence against women and girls”- compares it to the “watershed moments” of Stephen Lawrence and James Bulger. #pmqs
Boris Johnson says a we need “a cultural change to redress the balance”.

Says he’s open to Labour proposals on the issue
PM: “I think it would have been a good thing if last night the whole House had voted for tougher sentences for those who commit sexual and violent offences and stop them being released early.”
Read 5 tweets
15 Mar
Barrister Harriet Johnson tells @Maitlis: “I and others in my profession are seeing a growing body of evidence that police are institutionally misogynist. I see rape victims blamed, belittled, ridiculed and ignored by officers who are supposed to be supporting them.” #Newsnight
“I see police officers who just don’t believe women until the man who has raped them does it again and suddenly their evidence is not only creditable but vital.”
Ngozi Fulani, CEO Sistah Space: “Missing from the misogyny is racism...it seems that black women who go through domestic abuse, who are missing or who are murdered we don’t get the same response, we don’t get the outcry, we don’t get the concern, the public coming out for us.”
Read 4 tweets

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