Wow. Huge news. First by-election of the Parliament, right in the centre of the “red wall” where so much of the shifts of our political geography are taking place. Tories have targeted it for the last two cycles, likely thwarted last time by v high Brexit Party vote. 
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1371787948459450372
Has been Labour in one form or another since 1945. A test as to how permanent the 2019 Tory coalition might have been and indeed whether the electoral map can be further expanded now the BXP is largely off the scene (though Reform will presumably contest)
Big test for Starmer just at a point where the polling Gods are no longer with him. If he were to lose it atop of a poor locals result it would be massively damaging for his authority and his pitch as the electable figure who would be taken seriously by traditional Lab voters.
Would imagine Labour will move the writ to be held on local Election Day- boost turnout, contain damage with other stories being around if it’s bad news
The local elections in May in Hartlepool were already set to be...interesting
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
