This is a good piece by @jessicaelgot on how Covid ripped through Whitehall. But the quote at the end from @JonAshworth has induced a minor paroxysm of nerd-rage. Brief thread follows theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
Whether or not you think sick pay rules affected the spread of Covid, the claim at the end that we've 'built an economy characterised by zero hours contracts, temporary work' is just not true. In fact, it's complete and utter bollocks, no matter how many times Labour say it.
Here are the @ONS figures for employment growth over the last five years. Until Covid hits, most jobs created are very clearly full time rather than part time.
In fact, if you're enough of a nerd - and I am - you can download the relevant ONS dataset. Let's look at that decade Ashworth mentions ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…
2010: one part-time worker for every 2.7 full-time workers
2020: one for every 3.1

2010: 34.4% of workers are temporary
2020: 28.9% of workers are temporary

(As recently as Q3 2019 that figure is 24.0% - the second lowest in the entire time series)
During that period, the ratio of those in temporary work who are actually looking for extra hours goes from 34% to 29%.
On zero hours contracts, Ashworth has a fragment of a point. They have gone from covering 0.6% to 3% of the workforce over that period. But...
Before the pandemic hit, only 16.7% of those on ZHCs wanted extra hours in their current job. Only 6.8% wanted a different job with longer hours. Only 2.7% wanted to take on another job. (All data here ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…)
In short, most of the jobs created in the last decade have been full-time jobs. The rise in self-employment has been driven primarily by individual choice, particularly among the highly educated (see this piece of mine for the Times). thetimes.co.uk/article/labour…
Most people on temporary/part-time/ZH contracts appear to be there by choice. And while there may be some issues with ZHCs in particular, the constant repeated whine that the Tories have built the economy on unstable, exploitative, short-term, part-time work is Simply Not True.
(Here's a screengrab from that Times piece - BEIS and ONS both have the data.)

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More from @rcolvile

15 Mar
Quick thread on why I can't understand EU decisions on Oxford/AZ, based on this illuminating contribution from @olivernmoody
Oliver cites German concerns about cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) - apparently 7 cases in the 1.6 million people jabbed (vs background rate of 3-4/year, or possibly 15/year by another method)
The IFR of Covid in developed countries is roughly 1% (as of August, may have changed since). Germany has approx 9,000 infections per day.
Read 7 tweets
14 Mar
In my column today, I try to get to grips with one of the big puzzles of the pandemic - how can the same state that is doing the vaccine rollout so well have done testing & tracing so badly? (1/?) thetimes.co.uk/article/the-va…
If you listen to the Left, it’s simple. The Tories bunged £37 billion to Serco and their private-sector mates, who screwed everything up. Here’s Jezza, for example
Leaving aside the fact that ‘Track and Trace’ is what the Royal Mail do to parcels (I made that mistake SO often while writing), the whole £37bn figure is a great example of Twyman’s Law - which holds that the more interesting a figure is, the more likely it is to be wrong.
Read 13 tweets
7 Mar
Have written my column this week on the NHS pay row, and how a 1% pay rise isn't actually a 1% rise. You can read it here, but a few highlights below thetimes.co.uk/article/welcom…
The most important thing to know is that the NHS pay system is incredibly weird (except to all the NHS staff in my mentions for whom it is completely normal...)
We put out a paper on this a few years ago cps.org.uk/research/an-nh… but under the 'Agenda for Change' system (which doesn't cover doctors, but they have their own version) each job is broken down into its components, with points allotted
Read 21 tweets
23 Feb
Have tweeted this already but the fact that the pandemic has utterly slammed young people's prospects (pretty much exclusively) demands significantly more attention.
This is partly because they tend to work in the sectors that have been worst hit (all this via HMRC PAYE, via ONS)
Read 8 tweets
21 Feb
Have written my column today about Starmer and That Speech, and in particular the positioning difficulty he finds himself in. Full thing here but quick thread below thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-s…
One of the weird things about Starmer is that he is actually more popular among Lib Dem supporters than Labour supporters, and has been so fairly consistently.
He's almost certainly more popular than Ed Davey too, given that pretty much no one knows who he is - haven't got the crosstabs by party but this from YouGov gives a flavour Image
Read 11 tweets
20 Feb
Fresh reports today that @RishiSunak wants to raise corporation tax, with the justification that even after it goes up we'll still have the lowest rate in the G7. But as @CPSThinkTank and our friends at @TaxFoundation have pointed out, this is deeply misleading.
Yes, the UK has the fourth-lowest corp tax rate in OECD - but we're 17th out of 36 in terms of overall corp tax, because we have massively stingy investment allowances (in fact, Osborne funded corp tax cuts by slashing them - robbing manufacturing Peter to pay services Paul).
.@TaxFoundation ran the numbers for us when they published their latest International Tax Competitiveness Index, and raising corporation tax from 19% to 24% drops our business tax regime down to 25th of 36 (@RishiSunak is reported to be targeting 23%) cps.org.uk/media/press-re…
Read 4 tweets

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