Quick thread on why I can't understand EU decisions on Oxford/AZ, based on this illuminating contribution from @olivernmoody
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1371525925976862722?s=20
Oliver cites German concerns about cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) - apparently 7 cases in the 1.6 million people jabbed (vs background rate of 3-4/year, or possibly 15/year by another method)
The IFR of Covid in developed countries is roughly 1% (as of August, may have changed since). Germany has approx 9,000 infections per day.
If everyone in Germany gets jabbed, 7/1.6m have CVST, and all of those are fatal (no news on that yet) then given Germany's population, jabbing everyone aged 18+ would result in just under 300 deaths. Those 9,000 infections per day would lead to 90 deaths.
In other words, even if these numbers are imprecise, the cost-benefit in favour of continued vaccination appears to be utterly overwhelming.
(Am not a professional medical statistician, and have a howling child demanding my attention, so would welcome any corrections, but would have to be of an order of magnitude...)
To clarify: I meant 'European' rather than 'EU' in first tweet. As I said, howling child.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
