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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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16 Mar, 4 tweets, 4 min read
India reported the year’s biggest daily increase in cases on Sunday, with 25,320 new cases. Maharashtra, the epicenter of the renewed surge is imposing new restrictions but not a new lockdown. Halfway measures are not sufficient for this pandemic.

1/
reuters.com/article/idUSKB…
In the US progress has been made and the best opportunity to exit the outbreak is now.

North Dakota, Wyoming, and Hawaii are below 100 new cases per day.

2/
Alaska, District of Columbia, Main, Montana, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Vermont are between 100-200 daily cases.

There is an opportunity to open up normally zones with zero new cases as long as they have restrictions for non essential travel

3/
What is important is not missing this opportunity and letting the outbreak go to another increase requiring another lockdown.

4/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
17 Mar
Three main identified “variants of concern” with more rapid transmission, higher severity, and vaccine evasion have spread globally in recent months because travel restrictions were not sufficiently strong. Each can be considered like a new pandemic.

public.tableau.com/profile/brooks…

1/
A new P.3 variant first found in Philippines has E484K spike protein mutation found in Brazilian P1 variant, associated to stronger receptor binding and lower vaccine efficacy, and the N501Y mutation found in the UK B117 variant also considered to increase transmissibility.

2/
And....🥁...😬

Two cases of the Philippines P.3 variant have been detected in the UK.

Without travel restrictions the worst variants are everywhere. [When will they learn?]

[note: There are no Australian variants, none]

3/
twitter.com/i/events/13719…
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
14 Mar
Why the exit is hard and how to get there:

There is typically significant societal support to go from 10,000 to 1,000 or even 100 cases: individuals see their friends and family getting sick and governments fear political backlash from overflowing hospitals.

1/
But maintaining lockdown measures to get from 100 cases per day to 1 can seem unnecessary to individuals, businesses, and governments. However, failing to maintain the closure will allow cases to rise again.

2/
The key to complete the elimination process once the cases become low is achieving conscious recognition and public appreciation of the final stage of the process, the countdown to zero.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
14 Mar
Italy is having a rapid increase in cases and deaths. As always, the sooner action is taken the better. While Italy will be strengthening its region-based lockdowns, the way this will be done is critical for the next stage of the outbreak response.

thelocal.it/20210311/covid…
A “red zone” strategy, where restrictions are strengthened as cases go up, and relaxed as cases go down is exactly the prescription for health and economic disaster through yo-yo lockdowns.

2/
In contrast, a green zone exit strategy has been advocated by advisor to the Minister of Health, Riccardi Walter @WRicciardi

3/
unionesarda.it/en/articolo/ne…
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
12 Mar
The advisor to the Minister of Health:

"Here is the winning strategy against Covid: it also provides for the lockdown"

"Enough yo-yo between partial closures and reopening"

1/
unionesarda.it/en/articolo/ne…
"To beat the virus, Italy must make a courageous choice: adopt the "No Covid strategy", which also includes a lockdown, the only one that allows you to get out of the "vicious circle" of "months of yo-yo between partial closures and reopening ".

2/
"Walter Ricciardi, advisor to the Minister of Health for the Covid emergency and public health scholar, writes it in today's "Avvenire", explaining that "mass vaccination", while essential, "will take months if not years to guarantee adequate protection".

3/
Read 9 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
12 Mar
Denmark cases increased rapidly recently, likely due to new variants particularly the UK variant. Implemented measures are not adequate in this context and its advantageous geographic location on multiple islands and peninsula have not been exploited to stop imports. ImageImage
Out of all Nordic countries, Denmark currently has the highest vaccination doses administered per 100 people. It even has the highest rate in the European Union. ImageImage
However, Denmark recently suspended the use of AstroZeneca vaccine while the officials investigate reports of blood clots in people who received the vaccine

bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
10 Mar
Portugal: *Countdown to Zero*

With 786 new cases (weekly average) for the entire country Portugal is only weeks away from 0 new cases.

Portugal cases down 95%+ from peak, lowest since September.

Deaths are also down significantly, more than 90%.
On March 11, the government will announce plans to ease the lockdown.

Will they opt for (1) a sector based relaxation, or (2) a Green Zone exit (geographic) strategy, relaxing only areas with cases controlled by contact tracing, to reach elimination?

covidactiongroup.net/roadmap-to-eli…
Opposition leader Rui Rio @ruiriopsd has said that easing of lockdown may occur regionally at different rates.

theportugalnews.com/news/2021-03-0…
Read 8 tweets

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