Thread by @yaneerbaryam

Portugal: *Countdown to Zero*

With 786 new cases (weekly average) for the entire country Portugal is only weeks away from 0 new cases.

Portugal cases down 95%+ from peak, lowest since September.

Deaths are also down significantly, more than 90%.

On March 11, the government will announce plans to ease the lockdown.

Will they opt for (1) a sector based relaxation, or (2) a Green Zone exit (geographic) strategy, relaxing only areas with cases controlled by contact tracing, to reach elimination?

covidactiongroup.net/roadmap-to-eli…

Opposition leader Rui Rio @ruiriopsd has said that easing of lockdown may occur regionally at different rates.

theportugalnews.com/news/2021-03-0…

This is a good idea. Many municipalities are nearly Covid-free. Relaxing lockdowns in "Green" zones, while maintaining lockdown in "yellow" areas in the figure, would allow restoring social and economic activity while continuing to eliminate Covid.

When cases go down, people want to relax restrictions due to lower risk. If the areas that have higher cases are identified, people there take precautions seriously, while others can restore normal activities.
necsi.edu/psychology-and…

Regional data for Portugal shows most cases are concentrated in just a few regions. Aside from the regions with the highest infections, the rest of the country can quickly move toward elimination and resume normal life.

Criteria for lifting lockdown should be:

Zero community transmission (contact traced cases can be discounted) in the given region
Restrict non-essential travel (commuters permitted)
Mandatory 14-day quarantines for other essential travel

The Prime Minister, António Costa, has already said that, in addition to being gradual, progressive and differentiated by sectors of activity, "it may also be, depending on locations, as it has been in effect for a certain period of time in the country" @geekblake