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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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14 Mar, 7 tweets, 4 min read
Italy is having a rapid increase in cases and deaths. As always, the sooner action is taken the better. While Italy will be strengthening its region-based lockdowns, the way this will be done is critical for the next stage of the outbreak response.

thelocal.it/20210311/covid…
A “red zone” strategy, where restrictions are strengthened as cases go up, and relaxed as cases go down is exactly the prescription for health and economic disaster through yo-yo lockdowns.

2/
In contrast, a green zone exit strategy has been advocated by advisor to the Minister of Health, Riccardi Walter @WRicciardi

3/
unionesarda.it/en/articolo/ne…
Italy is already doing many of the right things for the Green Zone strategy.

The current ban on travel between regions is a critical piece of the strategy, preventing new outbreaks in areas that are successful in stopping transmission.

thelocal.it/20210222/lates…

4/
The key is combining a communication campaign, a strong 4-5 week lockdown with support measures and economic protection, isolation and quarantine residences, quarantining travelers, and reopening normally in the Green Zones without community transmission.

For the win!

5/
Here could be the reward (OK not rugby but we get the idea) @wicmar #ZeroCovid

And more...

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
12 Mar
The advisor to the Minister of Health:

"Here is the winning strategy against Covid: it also provides for the lockdown"

"Enough yo-yo between partial closures and reopening"

1/
unionesarda.it/en/articolo/ne…
"To beat the virus, Italy must make a courageous choice: adopt the "No Covid strategy", which also includes a lockdown, the only one that allows you to get out of the "vicious circle" of "months of yo-yo between partial closures and reopening ".

2/
"Walter Ricciardi, advisor to the Minister of Health for the Covid emergency and public health scholar, writes it in today's "Avvenire", explaining that "mass vaccination", while essential, "will take months if not years to guarantee adequate protection".

3/
Read 9 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
12 Mar
Denmark cases increased rapidly recently, likely due to new variants particularly the UK variant. Implemented measures are not adequate in this context and its advantageous geographic location on multiple islands and peninsula have not been exploited to stop imports. ImageImage
Out of all Nordic countries, Denmark currently has the highest vaccination doses administered per 100 people. It even has the highest rate in the European Union. ImageImage
However, Denmark recently suspended the use of AstroZeneca vaccine while the officials investigate reports of blood clots in people who received the vaccine

bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
10 Mar
Portugal: *Countdown to Zero*

With 786 new cases (weekly average) for the entire country Portugal is only weeks away from 0 new cases.

Portugal cases down 95%+ from peak, lowest since September.

Deaths are also down significantly, more than 90%.
On March 11, the government will announce plans to ease the lockdown.

Will they opt for (1) a sector based relaxation, or (2) a Green Zone exit (geographic) strategy, relaxing only areas with cases controlled by contact tracing, to reach elimination?

covidactiongroup.net/roadmap-to-eli…
Opposition leader Rui Rio @ruiriopsd has said that easing of lockdown may occur regionally at different rates.

theportugalnews.com/news/2021-03-0…
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
9 Mar
Great news: Spain is making significant progress!

Last week 55,000 new cases, only 35,000 this week.

Cases are down to 1/5 of peak.
Progress in nearly every region in Spain.

Catalonia, Madrid, Andalucia, Valenciana are among regions with the highest number of cases from this ‘wave’ of infections. All are reporting significant declines in cases.
To avoid further disruption and return to normalcy, Spain should adopt the Green Zone exit strategy. Breaking the country into small regions, or ‘zones’, allows green zones to open up while red zones continue to recover.
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
8 Mar
Portugal continues toward zero!

The 7 day average for Portugal is under 800, roughly 1/16 of peak.
Progress is going well in most regions,

Algarve, Alentejo, in the south, down to 30 per day, close to contact tracing control range.

Centro 120
Norte 200
Lisbon 400

The Azores 10, up from 5.
Madeira 180 but increasing

Intensify case finding to accelerate the decline.
Italy’s resurgence continues. Cases are now up to ⅔ of peak, and daily deaths have recently increased.

Yesterday they reported 23,633 cases and 307 deaths.
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
7 Mar
A week and a half ago we put out rough projections of cases including the B117 variant in the US

What has happened since then and what should we expect next?

Updates on each state

Starting from California--which is following the curve of inaction

@brumatingturtle
[Blue is projection, Black is actual (reported)]

Massachusetts--significantly worse

Florida--roughly the same

Michigan--significantly worse

Pennsylvania--roughly the same

2/
[Blue is projection, Black is actual (reported)]

North Carolina--perhaps a bit less (looks like no variant)

Louisiana--roughly tracking

Indiana--a bit higher

Georgia--significantly worse

3/
Read 5 tweets

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