Share this page!

Elbridge Colby Profile picture
Twitter logo
16 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Wait a minute. Say what you will but Trump Admin was 💪 on Taiwan . Blaming US *attempt to focus* & clarity on need to confront China for China’s aggressiveness against 🇹🇼 is frankly absurd. Beijing is menacing all by itself. Trump Admin recognized need to address the problem. 1/
Here is Trump Administration’s ***official, directive*** guidance: trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/upl…. Specifically & clearly directed @DeptofDefense to be able to defend Taiwan. 2/
The notion that US caused China to want to invade b/c strengthening our defense capability & signaling resolve is ridiculous. China’s ambitions re Taiwan are driven much more by: 1) revanchism, 2) Taiwan’s value on way to regional hegemony, 3) PRC +++ military power. 3/
BTW, who is talking about independence declaration by Taiwan??? Haven’t seen anything about that. @iingwen seems v prudent on this uber sensitive point.

These quotes from anonymous “defense officials” don’t hold up. 🤨4/

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Elbridge Colby

Elbridge Colby Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ElbridgeColby

Elbridge Colby Profile picture
16 Mar
I welcome debate w @HalBrands & @ZackCooper & this important contribution! But I think lets have the debate where it actually is. Tho they link to Bob/my piece (foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…) as opposing "realism" example, their piece isnt engage w our actual arg. Some egs&thoughts. 1/
Our arg is that competition w/China isn't ***primarily*** ideological. Used word 5 times in article. World is complex so ideology et al play a role in int'l politics but our point was that primary driver is state power. Not trying to be cute - we made clear arg for primacy of 2/
state power in intl politics - but that's different than "purging ideology from American statecraft." Ditto: "Better, these analysts argue, to approach the rivalry in realpolitik terms—as a cold-eyed contest over power." In fact we said "We are not proposing a one-dimensional" 3/
Read 16 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
14 Mar
I'm a huge Max Hastings fan so ☹️ to see this. A number of points I have w his piece but the bottom line is this: The *WORST* US policy is half-pregnancy, which keeps our cred attach to Taiwan but doesn't resource ability to defend it. This is most dangerous & damaging if war. 1/
If Taiwan isn't worth it &/or too costly/risky to defend, we should ensure our cred isn't attached - which it now is. But if we leave this vulnerable part of our perimeter ill-defended, China has *even more of an incentive* to challenge it - beyond just revanchism. 2/
If Hastings & Blackwill/Zelikow think that, then the right policy for them should be to *abandon* Taiwan. Deftly, diplomatically, etc. but still to extricate our cred from its fate. Not ambiguity. That wld minimize the damage to our cred in Asia. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
19 Feb
Quite extraordinary @POTUS speech #MSC2021. V liberal hawk. 🌍view basically ideological - systemic clash b/democs vs. authoritarians, *both* 🇨🇳&🇷🇺. Strategy based on big big bet that democs will align, yet signal is burden-sharing talk is hortatory. 1/

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Don't take it from me. Here's @POTUS: "We are in a fundamental debate about the future & direction of our world. We’re at an inflection point b/ those who argue that autocracy is the best way forward & those who understand that democracy is essential..." 2/
"I believe that — every ounce of my being — that democracy will and must prevail. We must demonstrate that democracies can still deliver for our people in this changed world. That, in my view, is our galvanizing mission. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
18 Feb
It's one thing to think last Admin was too tough on allies re burden sharing. But it doesn't make sense to go back to *saying* allies needed to do more but *clearly telegraphing* there will be little to no consequences for failing to shoulder their part of the burden. Some egs 1/
SD "charms NATO allies" & "mood lovey-dovey" according to @herszenhorn. "US sounded like friend...felt refreshing... participants in the meeting said." SD "emphasized that [allies'] contributions are also measured by how used, not just by size." 2/

politico.eu/article/lloyd-…
SD "offered a message of thanks and urged [allies] to keep up the good work." Does that sound like pressure on allies to spend more? Not to me. Sounds like telegraphing 0 consequences for free-riding. How's that going to enable focus on PRC/Asia? How's that fair to Americans? 3/
Read 5 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
12 Feb
There is some valuable analysis in this report, but on the defense front this report is deeply flawed. There are other sections of value in report but, candidly, I don't think it helps us think through critical question of Taiwan defense issues in clear & well-grounded way. 1/
Normally as it might seem churlish to be so critical, but @cfr is so high-profile & the co-authors so distinguished I think it’s key to be clear. If not, people - including in Beijing - could get the wrong idea & this report could do real harm if influential on defense issues. 2/
BLUF: The defense discussion in this report does not engage at the depth needed to add to this critical debate. Accordingly conclusions in report are ill-founded - & in key parts harmful/misleading, esp that US shldnt be prepared defend Taiwan directly (alongside own efforts). 3/
Read 27 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
26 Jan
I make the case why Taiwan is defensible & why US shld defend it in @WSJopinion: wsj.com/articles/ameri…. No 2 ways abt it: V. tough to do, BUT can be done IF it's overriding DOD priority. Esp crucial w/new admin, assertive PRC & many influential voices saying it's impossible. 1/
Defending Taiwan key for 2 reasons: 1) critical geography in first island chain; otherwise China can project power freely into WestPac; 2) US differentiated credibility - US word clearly on the line in Asia ilo TRA, 6 Assurncs, long record of standing w TWN agnst PRC coercion. 2/
For these reasons, the recently declassified 2018 Indo-Pacific strategy specifically ordered the Pentagon to implement a defense strategy that will make the U.S. capable of defending Taiwan. . @DeptofDefense should continue prioritizing Taiwan scenario. 3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @ElbridgeColby has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @ElbridgeColby!

Read all threads by @ElbridgeColby