Did a whale send in 18k of BTC into Gemini to dump the markets? Or was it a data error?
This alert was sent out to 28,300 traders warning of whale dumping. Speculators sold off minutes later.
This chart shows Gemini prices vs the average of Coinbase and Binance.
When the warning was sent out to traders, Gemini price did not dip relative to others which is what dumping there would look like. In fact it rose indicating net purchasing on that exchange.
Gemini trades $100m-$200m per day; that's insufficient liquidity to absorb a $1b sell. Price moves 2% on a $2m order there.
If the order was filled via their OTC desk, then we would expect to see corresponding flows go out to buyers on other desks/exchanges, this was NOT reported.
BTW, if this was an OTC transaction, it would be bullish due to $1b of price validation.
The underlying technical correctness of data presented by @cryptoquant_com really needs to be discussed by engineers in this field. Maybe @glassnode and @coinmetrics can comment. It's an issue with the accuracy of address labelling.
This is simply my fact checking analysis.
I looked at the txid cited by QC and clicked through to the wallet. This is the balance of the wallet claimed to be dumping into Gemini. It does not look like a whale holder dumping, more like an infrastructure entity like an exchange moving their coins.
1) me: Whales dumping Gemini is bogus data 2) @glassnode: it's an internal transfer 3) @cryptoquant_com: it's an external transfer 4) @coinmetrics: it's BlockFi
Me: warning 28,300 traders of whales dumping needs fact-checking.
While we are in the first great consolidation of the 2021 bull market, here's a bunch of charts to get the feel of where we are in this bull cycle.
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SOPR tracks profit-taken when coins being sold. It hit the 1.0 line which means we completely reset. To go lower we'd need to have investors sell at a loss. This would need a bear phase (that's is NOT on the cards with the current setup)
Here's how it looks in the longer time frame (1 week SOPR). Pretty close to a full reset, Elon kind of screwed with it, bounced us early.
They are nuanced. We have:
-Protocol coins
-Utility tokens
-Security tokens
-Non-fungible tokens
But to an investor, there's only 2 types of altcoins. Oscillators and Degenerators. You can spot them on this chart of the entire market.
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The vast majority of alt-coins are Degens. Their price chart has a measurable half-life, like radioactive decay. Plotted on a log chart, it's a straight line down. (This one is Namecoin, a promising coin of its era, there's over 2000 examples like this).
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A handful are oscillators. Oscillators are proving SoV properties.
To qualify they need to keep up with BTCUSD gains. To find them, plot their BTC value. It must oscillate around a horizontal line, for at least one full bull-bear cycle (around 4yrs). More cycles are better.
Introducing Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) and Balanced Price. New experimental models using the early metric of Bitcoin Days Destroy. Check @kenoshaking's handle very shortly for Balanced Price, I'll dig into CVDD here.
When a HODLer sells to another HODLer the transaction contains both value (USD) and a length of prior HODL time. CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value and time destruction for every on-chain transaction (adjusted by age of market which brings the units back into USD).
There is a calibration factor (6 million) involved, but once calibrated, CVDD catches all prior bottoms. It has the useful property of tending to increase over time, so useful in bear cycles when we want to gauge an estimate of the (rising) bottom zone.