Willy Woo Profile picture
16 Mar, 11 tweets, 5 min read
Appreciate the dialog @ki_young_ju.

1) me: Whales dumping Gemini is bogus data
2) @glassnode: it's an internal transfer
3) @cryptoquant_com: it's an external transfer
4) @coinmetrics: it's BlockFi

Me: warning 28,300 traders of whales dumping needs fact-checking.
Full chrono breakdown of events as they came to me.

TLDR; Ultimately we have a responsibility to fact-check and take all due care before releasing data.
Markets dumped immediately after @cryptoquant_com issued a warning of Whales dumping into Gemini.

It's actually the second time in a month that this occurrence has happened.
CyptoQuant: "it's external".

But I noticed in the QC analysis the "whale dumping" alert that was sent out got downplayed, 2 new scenarios were introduced:

1) whale dumping
2) inter-exchange transfer
3) OTC deal

The (2) (3) are not bearish.

I published my sanity check which ruled out:
(1) Whales dumping
(3) OTC inflows.

I'll add I did a rudimentary check on QC's tweet which disclosed the transaction and the dumping party looked like an infrastructure entity like an exchange.
CoinMetrics: "It's BlockFi"

No validating proof was given, but the wallet above did look like an infrastructure entity.
@ki_young_ju, I love that you're passionate about this, it's not a game of right or wrong over an internal or external transfer.

This is about validation and responsible fact-checking before alerting large number of traders of directly tradeable market information.
It's the second time QC broadcasted "whales dumping Gemini" to traders in the last 30 days. Leverage markets have a huge impact on price.
I note @glassnode also showed the first spike, but they fixed their labelling issues nor did they broadcast to tens of thousands of traders.

I'm appreciative of this entire on-chain industry including your work.

I'm asking you, and all data providers to take more care.

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More from @woonomic

16 Mar
The @cryptoquant_com "data error" debate.

Did a whale send in 18k of BTC into Gemini to dump the markets? Or was it a data error?

This alert was sent out to 28,300 traders warning of whale dumping. Speculators sold off minutes later.
This chart shows Gemini prices vs the average of Coinbase and Binance.

When the warning was sent out to traders, Gemini price did not dip relative to others which is what dumping there would look like. In fact it rose indicating net purchasing on that exchange.
Gemini trades $100m-$200m per day; that's insufficient liquidity to absorb a $1b sell. Price moves 2% on a $2m order there.

It makes no sense sell on Gemini.

Data: @coingecko
Read 7 tweets
30 Jan
While we are in the first great consolidation of the 2021 bull market, here's a bunch of charts to get the feel of where we are in this bull cycle.

👇
SOPR tracks profit-taken when coins being sold. It hit the 1.0 line which means we completely reset. To go lower we'd need to have investors sell at a loss. This would need a bear phase (that's is NOT on the cards with the current setup) Image
Here's how it looks in the longer time frame (1 week SOPR). Pretty close to a full reset, Elon kind of screwed with it, bounced us early. Image
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov 19
A thread on altcoins.

They are nuanced. We have:
-Protocol coins
-Utility tokens
-Security tokens
-Non-fungible tokens

But to an investor, there's only 2 types of altcoins. Oscillators and Degenerators. You can spot them on this chart of the entire market.

/1 Image
The vast majority of alt-coins are Degens. Their price chart has a measurable half-life, like radioactive decay. Plotted on a log chart, it's a straight line down. (This one is Namecoin, a promising coin of its era, there's over 2000 examples like this).

/2 Image
A handful are oscillators. Oscillators are proving SoV properties.

To qualify they need to keep up with BTCUSD gains. To find them, plot their BTC value. It must oscillate around a horizontal line, for at least one full bull-bear cycle (around 4yrs). More cycles are better.

/3 Image
Read 8 tweets
24 Jul 19
A nice collation of research, facts and figures, on the topic of Bitcoin energy consumption published by the International Energy Agency.

Some of my key takeaways in this thread...
Bitcoin's annual energy use is 69.6TWh (upper bound)

With a bit of math, lets see how big this is...

Global energy consumption rate is 18TW, thus Bitcoin consumes 232 mins of the year's energy demand. (69.6TWh/18TW*60mins=232mins)

In other words 0.044% of the world's energy. Image
Interestingly I see Bitcoin currently uses the same amount of energy as the Internet did in 2016.

70TWh per year.

forbes.com/sites/christop…
Read 8 tweets
9 Apr 19
Introducing Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) and Balanced Price. New experimental models using the early metric of Bitcoin Days Destroy. Check @kenoshaking's handle very shortly for Balanced Price, I'll dig into CVDD here. Image
When a HODLer sells to another HODLer the transaction contains both value (USD) and a length of prior HODL time. CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value and time destruction for every on-chain transaction (adjusted by age of market which brings the units back into USD).
There is a calibration factor (6 million) involved, but once calibrated, CVDD catches all prior bottoms. It has the useful property of tending to increase over time, so useful in bear cycles when we want to gauge an estimate of the (rising) bottom zone. Image
Read 7 tweets

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