The Review is a carefully-crafted document, balancing precariously key policy continuities and eye-catching new themes. Overall, less of a radical shift than advertised. But there are important unresolved tensions. How these play out is what will the shape the new strategy 1/8
On the continuities, welcome reaffirmation of UK leadership in NATO and euro-Atlantic security, the alliance with the US, commitment to multilateralism, and upholding human rights and open economies. 2/8
The most striking new ambition is for UK to be a science and tech superpower, with this creating strategic advantage and prosperity. Linked both to the tech threat from China and building on the UK’s success in vaccines. Another is to ‘shape the future international order’ 3/8
Then there’s the Indo-Pacific Tilt. The definition here is measured: deeper econ and dip engagement and more mil presence. But the political spin has made it sound more like a tilt away from Europe. And realism is key: UK can only be a secondary player in Asian security. 4/8
Now the unresolved tensions. First China. Here the Review is at its most nuanced: China is a systemic competitor but we need good trade and investment relations and their help on climate. I agree: but how resilient is this position given pressure from Tory China hawks and US? 5/8
Second, standing up for values and pursuing mercantilist imperative to find new markets and contracts. These could be in tension in many places, from China and Saudi to Turkey. UK willingness to break int. law when inconvenient over trade with N Ireland shows the danger 6/8
Third and most important, Europe. The Review manages (just) to mention the EU’s role in peace and prosperity of Europe. But how can the UK claim to be championing European security and rallying the democracies on global issues when it has no security relationship with the EU? 7/8
No document can resolve all the problems. This one presents high ambitions while omitting the prioritising of risks in previous reviews. So it largely avoids the hard choices. Exceptionalism is kept under control, but it is there: S and T superpower? Shaping the int order? 8/8
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