In coming days I will delve into more detail on aspects of the IR. Today, setting priorities. The US historian John Lewis Gaddis defined strategy as ‘the alignment of potentially unlimited aspirations with necessarily limited capabilities’. How does the IR measure up to that? 1/9
I wouldn’t claim that the Nat Sec Strategy and Strategic Defence Review I oversaw in 2010 was perfect. But we did for the first time set out a prioritied set of national security risks. We listed 15, in 3 tiers. In the 2015 NSS, that had grown to 20 but was still manageable 2/9
Our top four risks in 2010 (another int conflict, terrorism, cyber and natural hazards incl a pandemic) all got extra funding in the spending review published at the same time. I would describe that as an integrated review, with ends, ways and means broadly aligned. 3/9
The 2021 review has dropped the list of priority risks. There is plenty of ambition in every direction, but little recognition of the need to choose in allocating finite resources (especially since the UK’s global influence has been reduced by Brexit) 4/9
The only example of a priority I found is that climate ‘will be the UK’s int. priority through COP26 and beyond’. Fine, but are all the others lower priorities? For example: to be a science and technology superpower by 2030 (measured by wordage in the IR this ranks high) 5/9
Plus, to be a soft power superpower, to ‘shape the open international order of the future’ (no small task), to be the ‘leading European ally in NATO’ while deepening our engagement across the vastness of the Indo-Pacific, and stepping up action in Africa and the Gulf. Phew! 6/9
On top of that, to be a force for good on human rights, a ‘global champion of free and fair trade’ (the fair has crept in since Johnson’s Feb 2020 trade speech), a ‘meaningful player in space’ and to ‘take the lead in the technology vital to cyber power’ eg microprocessors. 7/9
And finally building national resilience, including (less prominently placed than I expected at p93) ‘bolstering domestic and international action to address global health risks’, including the non-negligible task of ‘reform of the global health system’. 8/9
All of these are worthy aims. But there is no sense of finite resources, or of the hard choices (eg values/commercial interests as Mr Raab is finding). What will we do less of to free up resources for all the new priorities? The EU? But we are finding that doesn’t go away! 9/9

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More from @LordRickettsP

16 Mar
The Review is a carefully-crafted document, balancing precariously key policy continuities and eye-catching new themes. Overall, less of a radical shift than advertised. But there are important unresolved tensions. How these play out is what will the shape the new strategy 1/8
On the continuities, welcome reaffirmation of UK leadership in NATO and euro-Atlantic security, the alliance with the US, commitment to multilateralism, and upholding human rights and open economies. 2/8
The most striking new ambition is for UK to be a science and tech superpower, with this creating strategic advantage and prosperity. Linked both to the tech threat from China and building on the UK’s success in vaccines. Another is to ‘shape the future international order’ 3/8
Read 8 tweets
26 Dec 20
The decision not to participate in #Erasmus is short-sighted and mean-spirited. The programme transformed the life-chances of thousands of Brits, many from disadvantaged backgrounds. The proposed UK alternative from a standing start will not be a full substitute. Here’s why. 1/7
Erasmus is often misunderstood as ‘just’ about uni student exchanges. That’s hugely important. But it also promoted vocational education and training placements and youth exchanges for schoolchildren. It gave extra grants for those with disabilities. All this = levelling up. 2/7
Erasmus gave participants a common framework and rules, which reduced the admin burden of setting up and running exchanges. This was vital for smaller colleges, youth groups etc. See evidence given to our Lords Cttee in 2018 on all this
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ld… 3/7
Read 7 tweets
26 Dec 20
Initial take on the security/justice parts of deal, based on summaries. May be useful when studying the full text. Overall, better than I had feared. Will reduce gap in capability from 1 Jan if applied immediately. BUT cooperation will be still be slower/more clunky than now. 1/7
Data sharing. Looks like a good outcome: UK can continue to exchange fingerprint and DNA data through Prum (though not in real-time, so it will be slower) and vehicle reg. data in future. Exchange of Passenger Name Records continues, on precedent set by EU/US and AUS deals. 2/7
In similar way, UK won’t have real-time access to the ECRIS criminal records database, but will have a ‘streamlined and time-limited process’ for data exchange using shared technical infrastructure. Important, as speed=safety in these data-exchange areas 3/7
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov 20
10 years ago today, UK and France signed two landmark Treaties on defence cooperation, which I coordinated as National Security Adviser. Here’s my view of what has been achieved (a mixed picture) and the prospects (much of the momentum has been lost) 1/4 rusi.org/commentary/fra…
One Treaty made a 50 year commitment to nuclear cooperation. The two countries are sharing a single facility (in Burgundy) for testing their warhead designs using advanced simulation. Saves each side money, and sends a powerful message of confidence in long-term partnership 2/4
The second treaty enabled much closer operational cooperation between the armed forces. This has been a success story. UK and France now have a Combined Joint Expeditionary Force trained to fight together. Exchanges of personnel and regular exercises have forged strong links. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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