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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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16 Mar, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Here's my best estimate of how each Democratic Senator compares to a "replacement senator" on two metrics:

a) How much they outperform partisan benchmarks electorally
b) How much more liberal they are than the *average* senator that would replace them

github.com/elliottmorris/…
Another way of looking at this:
The code is here. This was just a fun project I coded up last night — I'm sure there are ways y'all could change/improve it!

github.com/elliottmorris/…
mAcHiNe LeArNiNg
Here is a noisier plot with each Democratic senator's name on it
Guess I could have called it P-VALUE instead of VARS

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
11 Mar
Seems like there's something here that the conventional wisdom about Hispanics and wokeness/BLM/Defund is obscuring/ignoring
FWIW, for those of you that can read regression tables
Like... maybe... stay with me... they just thought Trump was a good president because their incomes rose by ~10%
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
10 Mar
We have been talking a lot about Republicans' gains with Hispanics recently, and rightly so! But since Democrats' gained in vote share v 2016, I also wanted to look at the swing among whites that gave them the WH & Senate. Turns out it came from both white liberals and moderates.
A note: These numbers are based on 2 months worth of polling data that YouGov kindly collects for The Economist each week. But while the N is large, I'd caution against reading too much into non-validated turnout; contemporaneous self-reports are good but not the final word.
I think, as @davidshor does, that ideological polarization is a dead-end for Democrats. They are a big tent party that needs to manage polarized white liberals, swingy moderates, and ideologically diverse non-whites. Going too far left could imperil that. HOWEVER,
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
10 Mar
my fiancée says that when she was in high school, her history teacher would give them extra credit if they wrote “god bless ronald reagan” on their tests. let’s stop pretending students filtering or altering their views at school is in any way new or different
my history and english teachers would play fox news before class and go on rants about obamacare death panels, gun control and social spending like every week. urban conservatives do not have a monopoly on feeling out of place at school
by the way, this is public school
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
9 Mar
Last week's YouGov/The Economist poll, among Democrats:

Joe Manchin:
22% favorable
37% unfavorable
41% don't know/not sure

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:
73% favorable
12% unfavorable
15% don't know/not sure

Bernie Sanders
87% favorable
10% unfavorable
4% don't know/not sure
FWIW, Joe Biden is at 88% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 2% don't know/NA
Manchin's numbers don't really matter outside of WV, but these data illustrate some interesting divides within the party nationally
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
8 Mar
Not dunking on Josh here, the conventional wisdom is just way wrong on midterms: There is zero — zero — recent historical correlation between economic growth and midterm performance. It’s The Political Referendum, Stupid onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.230…
I think Dems could do better on average because of their various policy victories, yeah, but if they do it won’t be because of GDP or income growth
I agree with this -- my point is that people are operating from the assumption that growth -> Dems hold the House and Senate bc of "fundamentals" or whatever, when the only fundamentals for midterms are POTUS approval and which party holds the White House.
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
7 Mar
Banning the publication and circulation of a book is very different from the copyright owner voluntarily withdrawing the book from the press, with very different implications for censorship or “disappearing” materials. Weird that otherwise, smart people are just... ignoring this
By the way, it’s plausible that Geisel would have done this himself years ago, given how much he regretted drawing racist caricatures of Japanese people during their forced internment throughout WWII. Surely that adds a wrinkle to the story that makes this different from Lolita?
I think a good critique of stuff like this, besides that the outrage is manufactured for clicks or whatever, is that many people obsessed with overblown cultural threats to liberalism seem to not care at all about very pressing electoral threats to popular sovereignty in America.
Read 4 tweets

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