A year ago, when COVID was just taking off in many places, I never expected that China would actually end up as one of the least affected countries.
China's official COVID death toll stands at 4,636.
That's probably an undercount for several reasons, but even if the truth were twice as high it would still be a very low rate of death compared to most Western countries.
What China appears to have achieved early in the pandemic was the complete elimination of local transmission.
Few countries seriously tried to do this, and even fewer succeeded.
China eliminated local transmission primarily via severe lockdowns and widespread testing.
In some places, lockdowns meant most people could not leave their homes for any reason at all. Even groceries were delivery only.
Entire cities had mandatory COVID testing.
China's strategy was extreme in its approach and the impact on people's lives, but it also seems to have been effective and has provided substantial dividends in terms of a return to normal life and economic activity.
THREAD) Climate scientists often don’t get as much recognition as they deserve.
For this #FollowFriday, I’ve prepared a list of 13 professional climate scientists, with at least 20,000 followers each, but which @Twitter has not yet @Verified.
First up, Professor Stefan Rahmstrof (@rahmstorf) is Head of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
He is a leading climate scientist, 2017 winner of the @theAGU's Climate Communication Prize, and an expert on the oceans. 2/
Dr. Kate Marvel (@DrKateMarvel) of Columbia University & NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Science.
She develops and evaluates climate models, while also frequently writing & speaking about climate change. One of @TIME’s "15 Women Leading the Fight Against Climate Change". 3/
If 2020 ends up as a new record warm year, and it might, then a significant component of that will have been the incredibly warm start of the year that has just occurred in Asia.
1/
January to April, Russia averaged nearly +6.0 °C (+11 °F) above historical norms. That's one hell of a "mild winter".
That's not only a new record anomaly for Russia. That's the largest January to April anomaly ever seen in any country's national average.
2/
In what may be a sign of worse to come later this year, the exceptionally warm winter has been followed by unusually large early season wildfires in Russia.
As with the last release, they expect all US states will see their initial peak at some time during April, though with some earlier than others.
A few of these have been reshuffled, with a slight overall shift towards earlier peaks.
Because the IHME model is trained on a lagging indicator, i.e. per state deaths, I haven't been surprised to see their total projected deaths be revised downward (93,000 -> 82,000 -> 60,000), and wouldn't be surprised if it goes somewhat lower still.
Simplistic (and therefore probably stupid) curve fit to USA COVID-19 cases and deaths.
If you want to be an optimist, then the USA may be near the peak of its new cases, and the first wave could even be mostly over by May.
To be clear the above plot is just a dumb curve-fitting exercise, but that simple model does fit the observations pretty closely.
The IHME modeling group is also doing curve-fitting with error functions, but they go state-by-state and ultimately predict ~82,000 deaths.
A second problem with such simple modeling is that it can't really answer the question of what comes next.
If you fit an error function (or similar curve) then you are explicitly assuming that COVID-19 will just go away after the peak. That's pretty unlikely.
Let's talk a little bit about COVID-19 mortality and age differences.
Firstly, it has been clear from the early days of this disease that older people (and those with preexisting conditions) are at much higher risk.
Right now, 1 in 4 people over the age 80 diagnosed with COVID-19 has died, as have 1 in 7 over age 60.
That compares to fewer than 1 in 900 deaths for people under the age of 30.
2/
That's not to say that COVID-19 is an easy disease for young people. Even though >99% of young adults recover, both Spain and the USA have reported that ~15% of their confirmed cases in young adults have needed hospital care.