1/9 Thread: We are all capital allocators

Capital allocation is one of the defining determinants of our personal wealth. Two people with similar current wealth but very different capital allocation skillset/priorities will have vastly different wealth in the long run.
2/9 I see a lot of people who want to be rich as fast as possible. Of course, there is hardly any get rich quick scheme, but let’s consider the possibility we do win some “lottery”.

What happens afterwards?
3/9 Unless we know how to deploy our winnings, we probably won’t remain rich for too long. We obviously cannot expect to win too many "lotteries".

Unfortunately, schools are terrible at teaching it, and even if they did, perhaps most of us would not “learn” it anyway.
4/9 Capital allocation is one of the many elements of capitalism that made me love capitalism.

If you are a bad capital allocator, with time capital will get sucked out of you and it will gradually move to people who are better at capital allocation than you.
5/9 Of course, this process takes years and decades, and possibly centuries.

There is a reason ~70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by second generation, and ~90% lose it by the third. This creative destruction is what makes capitalism sustainable over the long run.
6/9 Some of the discontents of capitalism that we hear these days are mostly consequence of shorter time horizon of the critics.

No other alternative has an embedded system to suck capital out of bad allocators. In fact, it mostly entrenches the status quo allocators.
7/9 Yes, income inequality in the information age is likely to increase further, but what many people miss is tomorrow’s rich class, who will probably be richer than today’s rich class, will likely consist of different set of people.
8/9 The top 1% may continue to have more and more wealth, but the people within top 1% are hardly ever the same when you compare in decades and centuries.
9/9 Capital allocation isn't just top-of-mind priority for CEOs, but every investor out there. It will have far reaching impact on our family's well being than many perhaps realize.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

14 Mar
1/7 Thread: The ruse of a bull market

One of the challenges I feel is to figure out what I believe on investing in my veins i.e. to what extent my portfolio is basically just the product of what has worked in the last few years vs what my investing philosophy truly is.
2/7 Once you read a few investing books and/or work in the investment management industry, you have a decent idea what people want to hear.

Yes, the Overton window can evolve in terms of what is acceptable or what people want to hear, but we rarely push the window.
3/7 I suspect most young investors, including me (in early 30s), who basically never experienced any sustained recession cultivate an investing philosophy that is derived from mimetic desire and involves a lot of self-deception.
Read 7 tweets
6 Mar
1/ Read the image attached here. It's about how Costco was consistently criticized by Wall Street analysts 15 years ago because they took "too much care" of the employees.

h/t @IntrinsicInv
2/ So what happened in the last 15 years? Costco was one of the few retailers in America that wasn't beaten to death in the age of Amazon.

It was almost 15x in the last 15 years.
3/ While capitalism does create tension among different stakeholders (shareholders, customers, employees, regulators etc), in many cases what is good for broader stakeholders is usually good for shareholders too.
Read 11 tweets
28 Feb
1/ Six months ago, I launched MBI Deep Dives. I publish one deep dive of a publicly listed company every month for $10/month or $100/yr.

Subscribers receive only one/two email each month, and each deep dive is ~8-10k worded piece.

Here's how it went. A thread.
2/ After 6 months, I have 589 paid subs. Although I started in September last year, I started monetizing from November 15, 2020.

I am glad with how things have gone so far, but of course, what happens after 60 months is much more important than 6 months. ImageImage
3/ I will be the first to admit that MBI Deep Dives has been greatly benefited by the bull market.

I have no clue what will happen to stock price in 3-6 months, but price action probably played a role in convincing at least some to subscribe to my work. Image
Read 10 tweets
26 Feb
1/ Thread: $ETSY 4Q'20 Earnings Update

By now, it's widely recognized how good Etsy is, so the debate is centered around valuation. I'll comment on that, but first here are my notes.

Disclosure: $ETSY is a major core holding of mine (~20% weight).
2/ GMS in 2020: $10.3 Bn growing +106%
Revenue $1.7 Bn growing +111%

"we roughly achieved our 2023 aspirations in 2020"

Etsy grew 2.5x as fast as e-commerce, and it is now 4th largest e-commerce site by monthly visit.
3/ Etsy is not just an US story now; the pace of international growth and domestic GMS in those markets highlight not only cross-border network effects in play, but also Etsy itself has become a potent international brand.
Read 15 tweets
25 Feb
1/ Thread: $ANSS 4Q'20 Earnings Update

Ansys just had a fantastic Q4, but provided a relatively soft 2021 guidance. Stock's down 9%.

Another reminder that past has little relevance, and it's the future that drives any stock.

Here are my notes.
2/ Revenue growth in Q4 was +28%. That's very impressive, especially because it was relatively tough comp. 4Q'19 revenue itself was +18% YoY.

Operating margin in Q4 improved by ~350 bps.
3/ Thanks to Q4 momentum, ACV ended up +11% this year. 83% of ACV was recurring vs 78% last year.

"Looking long term, we believe that the pandemic may actually cause our total addressable market to go faster than our pre-pandemic projections"
Read 7 tweets
23 Feb
1/8 Thread: $CPRT FY 2Q'21 Earnings Call Notes

I wrote a deep dive on Copart this month. I love the company and management (you'll see why in these notes), but less of a fan of the industry and valuation.

Here are my notes.
2/8 For the second consecutive quarter, volume is down 13%, but offset by ASPs which is up by +35%, significantly outpacing overall industry.

Dealer business +10% when overall industry was down
3/8 Revenue +7.3%
Gross margin +49.8%, up 160 bps
Operating margin improved by ~500 bps
Capex for the quarter $136.1 Mn, 85% of which is growth capex
Read 8 tweets

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