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Christina Pagel Profile picture
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17 Mar, 6 tweets, 2 min read
THREAD on vaccination slowdown story:

TLDR: Don't panic!

Tonight a reduction is vaccine supply is being widely reported leading to a pause in rolling out vaccination to the under 50's... bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… 1/5
Basically, we gave about 11 million people their first dose mid Jan - mid Feb. They need their 2nd dose by end April.

We've been vaxxing about 2.5m/wk last few weeks, but let's say vax supply drops to about 2m/wk for April. Then we need ALL those doses to honour 2nd doses. 2/5
Once most of those are done, we can start rolling out vaccination to new people again (adults under 50) in May.

Assuming we can ramp up to 3.5m/wk from May, we can still offer everyone a 1st dose by mid July. 3/5
Giving 2nd doses will then go quicker (once no one left to give 1st dose, can just use whole supply for 2nd doses - can offer 2nd vax in 3-12 week window).

So by early Sept all adults could be offered 2nd dose. 4/5
This is basically the *original* schedule.

If we can get higher than 3.5m/wk from May, we could be done even faster.

An April *1st* dose slowdown was always inevitable *if* we couldn't increase supply (as I said in this tweet thread a month ago)

5/5
PS basically this seems like bad news now because the stories over the last week had all been about getting far ahead of schedule and millions of extra doses...

so somewhere bad information was given out to journos or something has signficantly changed in vaccine supply

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Christina Pagel Profile picture
17 Mar
THREAD on schools in England so far & what next:

Context:
A few million people already do Lateral Flow Device tests (LFDs) for work each week.

On 8th March schools reopened and secondary school students were asked to 3 LFDs at school - 2 last week and 1 early this week.
People with symptoms of Covid continue to get a single PCR tests.

People who test positive after taking LFDs at *home* or for health & care work can also get a PCR test to confirm the result.

People taking LFDs at work, at school or in a test centre do NOT get confirmatory PCR
IMPORTANT: PCR test results take a while to come through, so we can only ever use positive results from 4 or more days ago.

LFD test results report immediately, and so, where there is no confirmatory PCR, we can use test results up to yesterday.
Read 12 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
13 Mar
THREAD on Lateral Flow Device tests (LFDs):

They are being used more and more in England.

Thread about how they're used, why you NEED confirmatory PCR testing, how it will make interpretating case figures difficult as we open up.

#NerdyThread 1/19
LFDs are used to test people who don't have Covid symptoms - they give results in about 30 minutes.

The govt reckons about 30% of people with Covid don't have symptoms & this article suggested that asymptomic spread might account for 50% of cases.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman… 2/19
So the point is to find people who have Covid but don't know they have Covid & stop them mixing with, and potentially infecting, other people. 3/19
Read 23 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
12 Mar
THREAD on VACCINATIONS: how are we doing in England?

Although this week has seen fewer jabs, we've still given a dose to 2.5 million people over last 7 days.

It's also good to see 2nd doses starting to take off & 42% of people over 16 have had a dose.🍾

BUT some concerns 1/6
There are differences in coverage by deprivation. For over 70s, the differences are definitely there but high coverage in all groups.

The differences are starker by ethnicity, with black populations having the lowest coverage. 2/6
As ages get younger, the disparities by deprivation & ethnicity get more pronounced. Although coverage is still increasing for 65-69 year olds, it seems likely that coverage in most deprived populations will stay much below that of the least deprived & lower than 70+s. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
10 Mar
THREAD LONG COVID & KIDS:

@LongCovidKids just published a survey of 510 children with long covid - what symptoms? how severe? how long-lasting?

I'll summarise main findings in this thread.

Shout-out to my postdoc @ferranespuny who analysed the data!

preprints.org/manuscript/202…
They wanted to find out about clusters of symptoms and severity.

Only children who had had symptoms for at least 4 weeks were included.

Parents of 510 children filled out the survey, 69% from the UK, 18% from the US. Almost 60% of children had confirmed Covid, 40% suspected.
Ages were skewed to older children, most common ages was 9-12 yrs old. 12% of kids were asymptomatic, 74% were managed at home. 44% of kids had no pre-existing health problem (80% had no pre existing mental health concern).
Read 12 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
7 Mar
LONG THREAD (21 tweets): As schools return this week in England, am I optimistic or pessimistic about Covid right now?

TLDR: Both - but veering pessimistic. But the policy shifts to move me into optimism are NOT that big!

Let’s start with the optimism & end with the worries.
2. The vaccine roll out is going amazingly well. Over 30% of adult population in England has now been vaccinated and we are on track to offer everyone a first dose by July – and perhaps even earlier. Uptake has also been much higher than anticipated.
3. Not just that, but the vaccines work better than expected. They are not only v effective at preventing illness, hospitalisation & death but are also effective at reducing transmission – this means vaxxed much less likely to spread covid to others.

vox.com/future-perfect…
Read 23 tweets
Christina Pagel Profile picture
26 Feb
THREAD on COVID and DEPRIVATION:

As cases recede nationally, some areas remain stubbornly high. Many have been persistently high for months. Deprivation is an important aspect of this.

This is a tour of deprivation & covid & what it means

(21 tweets but pls read).
2. First, how is deprivation measured? Usually by the "Index of multiple Deprivation". This assigns a value to every neighbourhood (~7000 people) based on 7 domains of deprivation.

arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/i…
3. All neighbourhoods (technically MSOAs) are then ranked in order of deprivation and split into 5 equally sized groups ("quintiles"). Every person in population can then be assigned to one deprivation quintile from most deprived to least deprived based on where they live.
Read 21 tweets

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