A couple quick takeaways from watching @spann tornado coverage most of yesterday:
-A few short & understandable key messages are repeated frequently
-"You know what to do" and "we've talked about this" are repeated often, helping viewers feel more in control of the situation.
@spann -There are frequent and detailed descriptions of what exact conditions specific areas are experiencing. I think this is valuable because it may reduce the urge to step outside and "double check", especially when tornadoes are visible from spotter streams or skycams
@spann -He's always up front with what, exactly, we know and don't know at any given moment
-Uncertainty is balanced by constant info on if/when certain questions will be answered i.e. "we'll know in the next five minutes if the warning will be extended into X towns"
@spann -Body language and tone of voice do a **ton** of heavy lifting. He's relaxed and speaks in a steady tone at a steady pace. A (tiny) bit of extraneous info is sacrificed for subconscious cues that the situation is under control.
@spann -Deep deep knowledge of local landmarks is extraordinarily valuable. He knows not just every town and every county but every BBQ joint, every movie theatre, every road name, etc.
This allows viewers to get their bearings regardless of which landmark is most meaningful to them.
@spann -He skillfully balances his own analysis with NWS warning information i.e. "the Weather Service is absolutely doing the right thing by including X town in the polygon since we know tornadoes change direction rapidly, but at this time, Y and Z specific towns are most at risk now."
@spann -He gives people a light at the end of the tunnel by clearly outlining when the danger will be passed for any given town, both ahead of time "X town, hang on in your shelters for another five minutes or so" and once the all clear can be sounded.
@spann One could probably write a whole communications textbook or two or three based just off Spann's tornado coverage, but these were some of the main points that stuck out to me yesterday.
Also, *so* many people did *amazing* work yesterday, I just happened to be watching @spann.
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Cell near Hattiesburg #MSwx has rapidly punched up to about 50,000 feet which means it has broken through the capping inversion.
It is already exhibiting rotation on radar and is likely not far off from producing severe weather given the very favorable environment.
Looking at dual-pol data (ZDR bottom left), it appears this cell is already size-sorting raindrops with highest ZDR values along the forward flank gust front and lower ZDR values farther west/NW of the mesocyclone.
This helps infer the presence of rotation within the storm.
[11:49 AM EST 3/17/21] - looks like we have two strong mesocyclones in SE #MSwx, one near Sandersville and the other south of Myrick.
No warnings on these cells yet as rotation isn't strong enough to support a tornado as of now, but these cells are two to keep a close eye on.
Quick roundup of overnight model guidance for tropical systems in the Atlantic.
Key idea is that a "recurve pathway" opens up in the central Atlantic this weekend. Rene definitely goes through, not clear if Paulette does or not.
Then we watch next waves emerging off Africa.
These "recurve pathways" will show up every few days as troughs move east/southeast from Atlantic Canada.
If storms are close enough, they recurve N/NE through those pathways. If not, they continue W or WNW.
But even if recurve chance 1 is missed, there will be another later.
Overall, I think the threat for significant tropical cyclone impacts (not counting the breezy showers from 94L) in the US during the next seven days is low.
Parts of the Caribbean (Lesser Antilles) should keep a close eye on the next wave emerging off Africa for possible impacts