1/
Lockdown-driven public health interventions have skewed COVID-19 infections in a deadly way, driving the virus away from the young, and towards the old. This distribution looks nothing like other pandemics over the last 100 years.
academic.oup.com/epirev/article…
Lockdown-driven public health interventions have skewed COVID-19 infections in a deadly way, driving the virus away from the young, and towards the old. This distribution looks nothing like other pandemics over the last 100 years.
academic.oup.com/epirev/article…
2/
By shunting the disease to the most vulnerable, these actions have nearly doubled deaths, increasing deaths from COVID-19 by more than 150K through 1/9/21 alone. This is a direct result of NOT taking a #FocusedProtection approach.
By shunting the disease to the most vulnerable, these actions have nearly doubled deaths, increasing deaths from COVID-19 by more than 150K through 1/9/21 alone. This is a direct result of NOT taking a #FocusedProtection approach.
3/
Far from flattening the curve, these actions have also increased hospitalizations by more than 25% had the virus been allowed to take a more natural course, where the young and healthy bore the brunt of the disease.
Far from flattening the curve, these actions have also increased hospitalizations by more than 25% had the virus been allowed to take a more natural course, where the young and healthy bore the brunt of the disease.
4/
The infection fatality rate (IFR) by age does not change, but the population IFR changes hugely based on who is infected. The IFR for COVID-19 through 1/9/21 was 0.38%. With a normal course, it could have been as low as 0.21%---lower than the 1957 flu
The infection fatality rate (IFR) by age does not change, but the population IFR changes hugely based on who is infected. The IFR for COVID-19 through 1/9/21 was 0.38%. With a normal course, it could have been as low as 0.21%---lower than the 1957 flu
5/
Interestingly, as late as February 28th, Dr. Fauci published an article in the New England Journal of Medicine noting that the IFR was certainly much lower than the reported CFR—and could be as low as seasonal flu or inline with the 1957 flu.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Interestingly, as late as February 28th, Dr. Fauci published an article in the New England Journal of Medicine noting that the IFR was certainly much lower than the reported CFR—and could be as low as seasonal flu or inline with the 1957 flu.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
6/
If the 2020 US age structure were = to 1957 w/the same infection distribution, there would have been 50%+ fewer pop-adjusted CV-19 deaths than that flu. Even w/this man-mis-made infection distribution if the age structure were = to 1957we would have had fewer deaths from CV-19
If the 2020 US age structure were = to 1957 w/the same infection distribution, there would have been 50%+ fewer pop-adjusted CV-19 deaths than that flu. Even w/this man-mis-made infection distribution if the age structure were = to 1957we would have had fewer deaths from CV-19
7/
When comparing the infection distribution by age to other pandemics, we see that it is unlike any other in terms of where the majority of the infections occurred.
When comparing the infection distribution by age to other pandemics, we see that it is unlike any other in terms of where the majority of the infections occurred.
8/
Looking at Massachusetts vs. Florida by age group, we see this very clearly. Massachusetts which has incredibly harsh measures that it never lifted, has continued to have higher mortality across older cohorts relative to Florida.
Looking at Massachusetts vs. Florida by age group, we see this very clearly. Massachusetts which has incredibly harsh measures that it never lifted, has continued to have higher mortality across older cohorts relative to Florida.
9/
This phenomenon was not unknown to public health officials. In fact, it is why harsh measures like lockdowns have never been employed, and are doubly cautioned against with diseases like COVID-19 with highly stratified risk profiles.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
This phenomenon was not unknown to public health officials. In fact, it is why harsh measures like lockdowns have never been employed, and are doubly cautioned against with diseases like COVID-19 with highly stratified risk profiles.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
10/
Lockdown policies, in addition to protecting the strong have also resulted in a “protect the rich, infect the poor” dynamic. The least-educated neighborhoods in Boston had 8x higher infections than the most educated.
rationalground.com/lockdowns-syst…
Lockdown policies, in addition to protecting the strong have also resulted in a “protect the rich, infect the poor” dynamic. The least-educated neighborhoods in Boston had 8x higher infections than the most educated.
rationalground.com/lockdowns-syst…
11/
This thread dives into this in painful, detail.
This thread dives into this in painful, detail.
https://twitter.com/the_brumby/status/1369041490408771590
12/
It is almost certainly this dynamic which has created the large discrepancy in deaths by race seen in the spring. As policies moderated in September, nationally, excess deaths by race normalized, with all races experiencing roughly the same excess death.
It is almost certainly this dynamic which has created the large discrepancy in deaths by race seen in the spring. As policies moderated in September, nationally, excess deaths by race normalized, with all races experiencing roughly the same excess death.
13/
In California where harsh restrictions are still in place, deaths are higher, and the variance by race persists. In Florida where these policies were abandoned, all deaths are lower, and all races are seeing roughly equal daily excess deaths.
In California where harsh restrictions are still in place, deaths are higher, and the variance by race persists. In Florida where these policies were abandoned, all deaths are lower, and all races are seeing roughly equal daily excess deaths.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1366851445039988745
14/
These policies have not only increased deaths from COVID-19—150K+ through early January alone—They have also resulted in 100K+ excess deaths un-related to COVID-19. Younger cohorts experienced the highest rates of this non-COVID excess death. thepragmatist.co/post/bad-publi…
These policies have not only increased deaths from COVID-19—150K+ through early January alone—They have also resulted in 100K+ excess deaths un-related to COVID-19. Younger cohorts experienced the highest rates of this non-COVID excess death. thepragmatist.co/post/bad-publi…
15/
These mitigation policies have been an abject failure, with no correlation between COVID-19 policies and deaths. They are tightly tied to extremely low rates of in-person education and high unemployment.
These mitigation policies have been an abject failure, with no correlation between COVID-19 policies and deaths. They are tightly tied to extremely low rates of in-person education and high unemployment.
16/
It was for fear of all of these terrible consequences that Dr. Michael Osterholm argued against lockdowns in March, saying we were about to ring a giant bell that can’t be un-rung. Now, he is simply an apologist for these disastrous outcomes.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
It was for fear of all of these terrible consequences that Dr. Michael Osterholm argued against lockdowns in March, saying we were about to ring a giant bell that can’t be un-rung. Now, he is simply an apologist for these disastrous outcomes.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
17/
These policies have no impact on health, because they are not driven by health. They are driven by politics. The CDC has revealed itself to be heavily influenced by politics—notably, but by no means exclusively—teachers unions.
These policies have no impact on health, because they are not driven by health. They are driven by politics. The CDC has revealed itself to be heavily influenced by politics—notably, but by no means exclusively—teachers unions.
18/
The high rates of deaths of minorities during lockdowns, was used as cover by the CDC to continue to advocate the same deadly policies, even after deaths by race nationally reverted to roughly equal levels as these policies were abandoned.
The high rates of deaths of minorities during lockdowns, was used as cover by the CDC to continue to advocate the same deadly policies, even after deaths by race nationally reverted to roughly equal levels as these policies were abandoned.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1366850602869923843
19/
These policies which killed so many minorities, and are even now robbing them of livelihoods and their children of education, are most strongly supported by those areas claiming to care most about equity—adding insult to injury.
These policies which killed so many minorities, and are even now robbing them of livelihoods and their children of education, are most strongly supported by those areas claiming to care most about equity—adding insult to injury.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1366848848807800837
20/
Rather than acknowledge these mistakes, the CDC is now using the most noble sentiments of half of the country—their desire for equality—to gain support for policies which are the public health version of Jim Crow. They are sowing division to avoid accountability.
Rather than acknowledge these mistakes, the CDC is now using the most noble sentiments of half of the country—their desire for equality—to gain support for policies which are the public health version of Jim Crow. They are sowing division to avoid accountability.
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