Alexander knows what he's talking about here. Our polling with YouGov finds that ~12% of adults say they've received 2doses of the vaccine, which is the same share the CDC reports. Don't see much evidence of response bias, except maybe some expressive hesitancy from Republicans.
A Marist poll last week found apartial + full vaccinate rate of 22%, which would have been about 1% too high for the time. Not nearly the level of error we see in the NY poll. I think this is just a problem of some people focusing on a biased data point
We have been talking a lot about Republicans' gains with Hispanics recently, and rightly so! But since Democrats' gained in vote share v 2016, I also wanted to look at the swing among whites that gave them the WH & Senate. Turns out it came from both white liberals and moderates.
A note: These numbers are based on 2 months worth of polling data that YouGov kindly collects for The Economist each week. But while the N is large, I'd caution against reading too much into non-validated turnout; contemporaneous self-reports are good but not the final word.
I think, as @davidshor does, that ideological polarization is a dead-end for Democrats. They are a big tent party that needs to manage polarized white liberals, swingy moderates, and ideologically diverse non-whites. Going too far left could imperil that. HOWEVER,
my fiancée says that when she was in high school, her history teacher would give them extra credit if they wrote “god bless ronald reagan” on their tests. let’s stop pretending students filtering or altering their views at school is in any way new or different
my history and english teachers would play fox news before class and go on rants about obamacare death panels, gun control and social spending like every week. urban conservatives do not have a monopoly on feeling out of place at school
Not dunking on Josh here, the conventional wisdom is just way wrong on midterms: There is zero — zero — recent historical correlation between economic growth and midterm performance. It’s The Political Referendum, Stupid onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.230…
I think Dems could do better on average because of their various policy victories, yeah, but if they do it won’t be because of GDP or income growth
I agree with this -- my point is that people are operating from the assumption that growth -> Dems hold the House and Senate bc of "fundamentals" or whatever, when the only fundamentals for midterms are POTUS approval and which party holds the White House.