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Derek #BlackLivesMatter Kaufman Profile picture
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19 Mar, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Illuminating but depressing piece from @willwilkinson examining stunningly detailed new research on partisan sorting by @RyanDEnos and Jacob Brown modelcitizen.substack.com/p/bubble-bubbl…
Graphical depictions from @KevinQ at @UpshotNYT here:
Thread from @emilymbadger here:
An older profile of @RyanDEnos here:
Oh - and of course a link to the actual paper: nature.com/articles/s4156…
In a (wonderful) prior piece, @willwilkinson explored this topic and its implications niskanencenter.org/the-density-di…

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More from @EconDerek

Derek #BlackLivesMatter Kaufman Profile picture
20 Mar
A brief 🧵 on why @LHSummers is an arrogant buffoon who, despite a long track record of being massively wrong, still seems to command the respect of policymakers
We can start with #BrooksleyBorn, the prescient head of the @CFTC, who loudly warned of the dangers of the over-the-counter (OTC) #Derivatives market in the 90s: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooksley…
The powerful cabal of @LHSummers, #RobertRubin, and #AlanGreenspan pushed hard against the regulation of derivatives, paving the way for massive financial and human carnage of the #GreatFinancialCrisis pbs.org/wgbh/pages/fro…
Read 13 tweets
Derek #BlackLivesMatter Kaufman Profile picture
16 Mar 20
Some thoughts on economic disaster relief - aka fiscal stimulus (things are fluid, and I'm open to refinements!). First, we should aim for $1trn, or 5% of GDP, which is on the high end of estimates. Better to overreact now, both on this and public health mitigation measures.
1) We should send #ChecksChecksChecks to every person (including kids!) - $2000 is a rough estimate - could be $1000 per month during the national shutdown - this is about $600bn
We could have these be taxable a year later for those above a certain income level to make it more progressive, although the @gop may not go for that
Read 19 tweets
Derek #BlackLivesMatter Kaufman Profile picture
27 Sep 18
I want to share a few obvious thoughts on the #KavanaughConfirmation - we need to use the right Bayesian priors to think this through: 1) false accusations of rape occur between 2-10% of the time en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_acc…
2) 63% of sexual assaults are not reported to police nsvrc.org/sites/default/…
3) multiple, unrelated accusations should cause you to radically update your priors
Read 14 tweets

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