A brief 🧵 on why @LHSummers is an arrogant buffoon who, despite a long track record of being massively wrong, still seems to command the respect of policymakers
We can start with #BrooksleyBorn, the prescient head of the @CFTC, who loudly warned of the dangers of the over-the-counter (OTC) #Derivatives market in the 90s: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooksley…
The powerful cabal of @LHSummers, #RobertRubin, and #AlanGreenspan pushed hard against the regulation of derivatives, paving the way for massive financial and human carnage of the #GreatFinancialCrisis pbs.org/wgbh/pages/fro…
Next stop, President of @Harvard, where he promptly made the offensive comment that "the under-representation of female scientists at elite universities may stem in part from 'innate' differences between men and women" thecrimson.com/article/2005/1…
His other "achievement" was the utterly disastrous management of @Harvard's endowment (with @elerianm), by staying fully invested in the 2005-2007 bubble years, & also by making reckless bets with (you guessed it) long-dated interest-rate derivatives blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2…
More on the interest-rate swap losses here: dealbook.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/har…
Next stop, as @BarackObama's #NEC head, he was way too timid in advocating for an appropriately aggressive #FiscalStimulus, paving the way for an anemic recovery, with its associated economic and political costs theatlantic.com/business/archi…
Now we need to acknowledge his later realization that more fiscal expansion would have been appropriate, in light of his embrace of #SecularStagnation starting in 2013, leading to this piece in 2016 larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the…
Take a moment to process this key takeaway "That is why primary responsibility for addressing secular stagnation should rest with fiscal policy. An expansionary fiscal policy can reduce national savings, raise neutral real interest rates, and stimulate growth."
Now, in the midst of a pandemic that has exacerbated inequity and laid bare the struggles of millions of Americans, @LHSummers has the gall to say: "the U.S. is suffering from the 'least responsible' macroeconomic policy in four decades" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
One can't help but conclude he feels wounded by being left out of the decision-making inner-circle (with an incredibly competent woman - @SecYellen - who has now held all the jobs @LHSummers coveted - instead having a meaningful say)
But of all this, my favorite is @LHSummers demonstration of how out-of-touch and ignorant he was for all his years of policy & financial mismanagement was this piece: ft.com/content/7a558b…
"Driving across America, as opposed to looking down from a plane, makes clear how much of this vast country is uninhabited." At 64, he finally figured this out! In 1976 the @NewYorker already knew what was going on in @LHSummers's mind:

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More from @EconDerek

19 Mar
Illuminating but depressing piece from @willwilkinson examining stunningly detailed new research on partisan sorting by @RyanDEnos and Jacob Brown modelcitizen.substack.com/p/bubble-bubbl…
Read 6 tweets
16 Mar 20
Some thoughts on economic disaster relief - aka fiscal stimulus (things are fluid, and I'm open to refinements!). First, we should aim for $1trn, or 5% of GDP, which is on the high end of estimates. Better to overreact now, both on this and public health mitigation measures.
1) We should send #ChecksChecksChecks to every person (including kids!) - $2000 is a rough estimate - could be $1000 per month during the national shutdown - this is about $600bn
We could have these be taxable a year later for those above a certain income level to make it more progressive, although the @gop may not go for that
Read 19 tweets
27 Sep 18
I want to share a few obvious thoughts on the #KavanaughConfirmation - we need to use the right Bayesian priors to think this through: 1) false accusations of rape occur between 2-10% of the time en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_acc…
2) 63% of sexual assaults are not reported to police nsvrc.org/sites/default/…
3) multiple, unrelated accusations should cause you to radically update your priors
Read 14 tweets

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