Live now: We are one year into the pandemic. What could we have done differently? With latest figures from @chrischirp. Join us. pscp.tv/w/cyNN1TFNV0V3…
We start with the latest facts and figures from @chrischirp. The ONS survey released today shows cases in England and Wales are going down, NI is more flat and in Scotland there are signs that the number of people testing positive is going up.
As we are one year in, we know there is a way out of this pandemic, but we can't be complacent, says @chrischirp.
"We need a comprehensive suppression strategy from the government," says @Sir_David_King. "We need to prioritise support for local communities in deprived areas. We strongly back the call for a public inquiry as soon as possible to ensure lessons are learned."
"UK has been very conservative in its prioritising process," says @GabrielScally in regard to uptake of the vaccine "we know rates are lowest in some of our most deprived communities." Faith groups and local communities are key in helping increase uptake in vulnerable communities
"One of the clearest mistakes last summer was opening too quickly, and giving the implicit message that things were over. The consequence of that has been the second and third waves. I fear the same thing is happening now." @ReicherStephen
"Enlist the public, make them active and give them self-efficacy in the fight against the pandemic. The government, in trying to reassure the public, is making the public complacent. We can make this happen but we have to work at it." @ReicherStephen
"We don't really know the answer" as to what the effect of waiting more than 12 weeks for a second jab will have, says @GabrielScally, answering Louise's question. "There's every chance the second dose will continue to be effective, but one would expect a tail off over time."
"Getting good border controls in place [for isolation] pays for itself many times over," says @SusanMichie. "There should be much more consultation with, and listening to, the public. The strategy would be much better if [the government] did that"
"It's an insult to the families who have lost people," says @Kit_Yates_Maths "when the government says we did everything we could. Was opening schools for one day really doing everything we could? Borders is another example of this happening. We need to be doing more."
"What worries me is that our R number will go above 1 and we will still continue to open things. The worry to me is just relying on vaccination numbers." @chrischirp
Guidance on masks has been updated in light of new variants across Europe, but not in the UK. @GabrielScally says it "should be kept under regular review", and "we're not doing some of the fundamentals properly, we're not reviewing our protective arrangements, or ventilation"
"It's all part of this unwillingness to learn, unwillingness to change. Investing in better ventilation systems is not just good for Covid, it will help year-on-year, it's a long term investment with long term benefits." @chrischirp
"The strategy isn't one of maximum suppression or driving down to 0 Covid; instead [gov strategy] is to contain the virus. There's an acceptance in letting it bumble along at a level they think is alright, at a level they think is publicly acceptable." @SusanMichie
"In China and SEA they have experience of SARS and they know what needs to be done. Here, there is a lack of experience, an unwillingness to learn, putting business above public health. £Bns spent on Test & Trace, instead of building up public health infrastructure." @SusanMichie
"You cannot have a healthy economy without having a healthy population, you can't have a healthy high street without healthy side streets." @GabrielScally
"I think you can open up outdoor spaces. But I have a problem with how we haven't made schools, work places or borders safer. The gov. doesn't seem interested in doing that." @chrischirp
"Another problem is young people. A fifth of the population won't be vaccinated, will still be exposed to this virus, and this has huge consequences for these groups. We have to think about the people who won't be vaccinated, especially young people." @Zubhaque
A year into the pandemic, it seems like we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. We will be back same time, same place, next Friday.
Thanks to @chrischirp for the very useful introductory presentation. As she pointed out, AZ and Pfizer have been shown to be equally effective.
Watch this incredibly powerful account from palliative care doctor and writer Rachel Clarke @doctor_oxford of what life has been like working on the NHS frontline and the challenges that lie ahead for exhausted and traumatised staff.
"When you are at the front line of seeing patient after patient after patient, coming into the hospital with the same symptoms, dying in the same way, in numbers unimaginable to any of us, that hits you hard." @doctor_oxford
"The alternative to vigorous suppression of this virus is a continued experience for all patients of healthcare being provided in a way that's fundamentally transformed by the infection control measures you have to have in place to stop transmission of covid." @doctor_oxford
.@chrischirp is just talking us through the latest figures. Cases are continuing to come down (although the rate of decline is slowing) and we're now back at the levels we were at at the end of the last lockdown in Nov.
For the first time since September, cases in primary school children are higher than in secondary school children. This may reflect that currently around 25% of primary school students in school compared to 5% of secondary
Is it safe to see relatives at Christmas? What do the members of #IndependentSAGE think? And what are they personally choosing to do?
1/ First up, @Kit_Yates_Maths: "I have an 80 year old dad and a 70 year old step-mum, so we're taking the decision not to see them, even though it's legally allowed. For me, the risk is too great."
2/ @GabrielScally: "We'll see one of my daughters in the garden or outside somewhere... we've come through so much this year, it would be so wrong to risk anything at this point in time."
In case you missed our livestreamed briefing earlier, here's @Kit_Yates_Maths brilliant presentation of the latest figures. Warning: if you're in the mood for festive cheer, look away now. Thread 1/15
This is not a good situation, cases are high and they are rising rapidly
We can't promise festive cheer but we can give you the facts to make an informed choice on how best to keep your loved ones safe this Xmas. With @theAliceRoberts & @Kit_Yates_Maths crunching numbers. pscp.tv/w/cqtVCDFNV0V3…
We are live and @Kit_Yates_Maths is presenting the week's figures: 'This is the worst set of data I've presented so far, things are deteriorating quite rapidly and tiers are not keeping things under control'. Join us
'Even the toughest set of measures (Tier 3) is not enough to slow the virus down, which is extremely worrying' @Kit_Yates_Maths
1/ Presentation of the week’s figures from @chrischirp. Some positive signs but a lot of regional variation. Coming out of restrictions will be hard
2/ Hospital admissions: sustained decreases in NI & Scotland, Wales plateauing. In England we saw a slowdown end of Oct/start of Nov, then a rapid increase and it’s now (just) starting to reduce again.
3/ High admissions have meant numbers of people in hospital are continuing to go up and we aren’t that far from April peak. Hopefully if admissions keep dropping, these numbers will start to come down soon which will be important for NHS