The optimal strategy when punditing on more than two options is to give a 40% chance to the top scenario and get everything else as close as possible. Summers should have gone with:

40% rapid growth + inflation
20% rapid growth, no inflation
20% stagflation
20% recession
In a binary bet, eg between inflation and no inflation, it’s optimal for a pundit to assign a 60-40 split between the options. That way they’re usually right, but if they’re wrong they get to say “I told you so” and are usually less wrong than other people.
This is probably a horrible way to make money, but it’s a reasonably good strategy for relative media credibility if you kinda know what you’re talking about but haven’t developed a good model to approximate reality
Larry Summers: The Guy Who Saw Stagflation Coming When Nobody Else Did

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More from @gelliottmorris

18 Mar
Alexander knows what he's talking about here. Our polling with YouGov finds that ~12% of adults say they've received 2doses of the vaccine, which is the same share the CDC reports. Don't see much evidence of response bias, except maybe some expressive hesitancy from Republicans.
Read 4 tweets
16 Mar
Here's my best estimate of how each Democratic Senator compares to a "replacement senator" on two metrics:

a) How much they outperform partisan benchmarks electorally
b) How much more liberal they are than the *average* senator that would replace them

github.com/elliottmorris/…
Another way of looking at this:
The code is here. This was just a fun project I coded up last night — I'm sure there are ways y'all could change/improve it!

github.com/elliottmorris/…
Read 6 tweets
11 Mar
Seems like there's something here that the conventional wisdom about Hispanics and wokeness/BLM/Defund is obscuring/ignoring
FWIW, for those of you that can read regression tables
Like... maybe... stay with me... they just thought Trump was a good president because their incomes rose by ~10%
Read 5 tweets
10 Mar
We have been talking a lot about Republicans' gains with Hispanics recently, and rightly so! But since Democrats' gained in vote share v 2016, I also wanted to look at the swing among whites that gave them the WH & Senate. Turns out it came from both white liberals and moderates.
A note: These numbers are based on 2 months worth of polling data that YouGov kindly collects for The Economist each week. But while the N is large, I'd caution against reading too much into non-validated turnout; contemporaneous self-reports are good but not the final word.
I think, as @davidshor does, that ideological polarization is a dead-end for Democrats. They are a big tent party that needs to manage polarized white liberals, swingy moderates, and ideologically diverse non-whites. Going too far left could imperil that. HOWEVER,
Read 4 tweets
10 Mar
my fiancée says that when she was in high school, her history teacher would give them extra credit if they wrote “god bless ronald reagan” on their tests. let’s stop pretending students filtering or altering their views at school is in any way new or different
my history and english teachers would play fox news before class and go on rants about obamacare death panels, gun control and social spending like every week. urban conservatives do not have a monopoly on feeling out of place at school
by the way, this is public school
Read 5 tweets
9 Mar
Last week's YouGov/The Economist poll, among Democrats:

Joe Manchin:
22% favorable
37% unfavorable
41% don't know/not sure

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:
73% favorable
12% unfavorable
15% don't know/not sure

Bernie Sanders
87% favorable
10% unfavorable
4% don't know/not sure
FWIW, Joe Biden is at 88% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 2% don't know/NA
Manchin's numbers don't really matter outside of WV, but these data illustrate some interesting divides within the party nationally
Read 5 tweets

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