Not that I was asked, but I have some prepared points on Russian missile defense and can't keep myself silent.

Mega-thread incoming!

(Also expect some crazy schemes)

1/
A disclaimer: unlike the US we do not have a Missile Defense Agency, but what we have is a concept of joint Air-Space defense, which includes air defense, missile defense, space forces, early warning, and Moscow ABM system, among others.

2/
In terms of strike systems we have upgraded interceptor for the Moscow ABM system, and future S-500 and Nudol’ mobile surface-to-air missiles, with the latter, per some sources, having a rather serious ASAT capability as well (which is not that surprising).

3/
S-300V family of Ground Forces Air Defense systems is believed to be quite capable as a regional missile defense system.

(Big fan)

4/
One of the major questions is how mature is the hit-to-kill technology in Russian interceptors. There were statements about it being developed, an tested, but nothing that can serve as a proof.

5/
So the regular type of warhead for interceptors is smth that can be translated as “high explosive with directed field of fragments”. And, of course, nuclear warheads are still considered an option, although those are in central storages.

6/
As for sensors - modern and next gen EW/SPRN radars (Voronezh and future Yakhroma series) might have some capabilities as part of MD, but, anyway, EW, space control and missile defense information is obtained in shared jointly. At least, this is what is claimed.

7/
There is a serious focus on non-ballistic threats, like cruise and aeroballistic, and hypersonic, missiles. Again, the capabilities might be not that "proved", but at least something is tested, including during major field exercises.

8/
On sub-strategic missile defenses there were reports that concept is developed, to cover cities, infrastructure and military formations. Given the death of the INF treaty, this work is becoming more important, new S-300V units are established at the Russian FE.
Also, Abakan.
9/
So the bottom line is: yes, there are missile defense-related developments in Russia.

But those remain relatively modest, and hardly undermine the chances of UK Tridents to take out Moscow.

10/10

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More from @KomissarWhipla

24 Feb
Some thoughts on B-1B deployed to Norway (dvidshub.net/news/389516/hi…)

1) Just in case: those are non-nuclear, and it is complicated to reverse thing.
2) Even w/ conventional weapons those are quite capable to give a hard time...

1/
...because - JASSM family, incl -ER and anti-ship LRASM. So sensitive targets on the territory of Russia and in adjacent waters are under threat.

In the future, the Lancers might get equipped with even more unpleasant things, incl. ARRW and conv. LRSO.

2/
3) Such a deployment is not limited by anything. I hope that transparency for such operations to reduce escalation risks will be a part of the work plans for RU/US strategic stability discussions, which were recently mentioned (again) by A.Blinken.

3/
Read 8 tweets
15 Feb
Interview with SPRN com. Col.A.Revenok: redstar.ru/preduprezhdyon…

Plans for ground echelon:
- dual-band radar in Vorkuta
- high-potential radar in Murmansk
- radar in Sevastopol'
- by 2030 - modernization of Krasnodar and Irkutsk radars, new construction in Leningrad and Far East.
Space echelon: EKS to be completed by 2024.

There is information integration and sharing between EW, MD and Space Control systems.
Detection:
EKS controls possible launch regions in the Northern Hemisphere by HEO satellites which detect the launch flame from ~40000 km; data from sat is transmitted to ground control post, which, after validation, sends data to EW ("ATTENTION") and MD ("ALARM").
Read 4 tweets
14 Feb
Voyennaya Priyemka about Early Warning:

As usual, awesome footage, sad narration.
Nice explanation of Irkutsk Voronezh-M sectors: "Chukotka-Alaska and China ("due to understandable considerations"). Peculiar detail: blurred India:) ImageImageImageImage
Misc stills ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
12 Jan
Behold, the instrument of #NewSTART extension overcoming the ratification in Russia timeframe issues : docs.cntd.ru/document/57319…

An "'international protocol" extending the Agreement on ballistic missile and space launch vehicles launch notifications between Russia and China. Image
"This Protocol shall be temporarily applied from December 15, 2020 and shall enter into force on the day of receipt through diplomatic channels of the last written notification of the implementation by the Parties of the domestic procedures necessary for its entry into force."
BTW so far I haven't managed to find the relevant ratification documents on the Duma website.
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan
Finally tried to find a rough answer to the question about number of Russian long range non-nuclear (;))cruise (and quasiballistic;))) missiles, a topic I was very much interested myself.

Weapons included: Kalibr, Oniks, Iskander-M, Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-32, Kh-22, Kinzhal.

1/
Brief estimation give around 2000-3000 depending on the state of legacy systems, assumptions on number of spare missiles and production capacities. About half of that might be available for first salvo. ~55% are air, with slightly less than 30% ground, what remains - sea.

2/ Image
At the same time, 'sea leg of the non-nuclear triad' has a trend of a gradual increase in the coming years, because kalibrization is a thing, and this thing is speeding up. And it will also be augmented with tsirkonization. Both with new hulls and modernized combatants.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
16 Dec 20
13th MD in Orenburg deployed another Avangard missile system w/ hypersonic glide winged vehicle. Support equipment, incl. transporter, looks rather oldschool.

#hyperhype
Might be safe to say that now to there are at least three nuclear-armed HGVs on alert, with at least four silo launchers.
Read 9 tweets

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