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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
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21 Mar, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Contrary to breathless climate reporting:

EU forests are burning *less* (not more)

Burned area halved for EU Southern States 1980-2019 (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Greece, ~90%)

Trend down for Rest EU (even though many w/only recent data)

ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publica… Image
EU forests burn *less*

despite EU forested area *increasing*

data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.L… Image
EU forests burn ever less

— but you'd never know reading the EU press release

Instead, the EU makes several scary claims that are simply wrong

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
EU forests burn ever less, but the EU never tells you

Instead, EU tells you that "world suffers worst year on record for forest fires"

This is untrue for burned area (depicted), and also for CO₂ emissions and # killed

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
EU forests burn ever less, but the EU never tells you

Instead, EU tells you that by March 2019 "the EU's total burnt area was already above the annual average of the last 12 years" which sounds terrifying

And is wrong

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
For reference, here is Australia

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
11 Mar
Everyone heard Australia's fires killed billions of animals

But we weren't told this happens every year

Rough estimates show 2019-20 was actually one of the least deadly fires in 120 years.

Last century: 16 billion animals harmed each year
2000s: 9 billion
2019-20: 6 billion
As discussed below, this rough estimate uses the same, but simplified, calculations as the original 1 (and later 3) billion claim

Original total number killed/harmed: vertebrates/ha*area burned

As reptiles make up 87% of all harmed, and Australia average is 200/ha:
WWF found 3 billion, because only counted in "uncharacteristic" burn areas

But surely a burned animal matter equally whether its fire is covered on TV or not?

Burning elsewhere was *much* lower, hence many fewer harmed there (we ought to know that, too)

wwf.org.au/ArticleDocumen…
Read 17 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
9 Mar
Hilarious (and quite off) replies from committed climate alarmists to my graph

Contrary to breathless climate reporting, Australia wasn't "ablaze" in 2019-20

Burned area was actually one of the *lowest* since 1900

Many said "but <reasons> reduced fire"

Of course, but *we were never told fire declines*

None of the breathless reporting said: "Burned area has declined dramatically, and is now at historical lows"

Instead, they said "Australia is on fire, literally"

nbcnews.com/science/enviro…
Many chastised me for using "wrong measure" of "burned area"

Yet, I use same measure as official "Australia's Environment" annual overview

It also concludes "well below average"

I suspect "wrong measure" means "doesn't support scary story"

wenfo.org/aer/wp-content…
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
7 Mar
Fires burned 10% of Australia's land surface on average every year in 20th century

In this century, it burned 6% (2001-19)

We now have the data for 2019-20, the year with "Australia ablaze":

4% (3.95%)

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…. globalfiredata.org/analysis.html nature.com/articles/d4158… Image
Yes, tragedies: Much more fire close to where people live (NSW and Victoria)

But we were told "Australia burns" and "this is what a climate crisis looks like"

No

Australia had one of its lowest areas burned in last 120 years

And fires inconsistent with climate impact Image
Along with bad media coverage, misleading graphics pushed the idea that the Australian continent was ablaze


Image
Read 8 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
27 Feb
US 2021 top priorities: economy, covid and jobs

Climate change towards bottom (but no longer last as it used to be)

pewresearch.org/politics/2021/…
US Democrats' top priorities for 2021: Corona, economy, race

Climate change is 9th

pewresearch.org/politics/2021/…
US Republicans' top priorities for 2021: economy, no terror, jobs

Climate change decisively last

pewresearch.org/politics/2021/…
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
23 Feb
Despite breathless climate reporting, deaths from malaria, heat, diarrhea, malnutrition and dengue *lower* by 2050, according to WHO

Here dengue; climate will delay progress slightly, from 2049 to 2050

ihmeuw.org/5dx9, who.int/healthinfo/glo…, apps.who.int/iris/handle/10…
It is the same with heat deaths: by 2050 they will still be much lower than current cold deaths

As we saw with malnutrition, climate will not make deaths go up, but slow progress slightly
Read 8 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
18 Feb
Despite the breathless climate reporting, global heat deaths by 2050 will still be much lower than current cold deaths

This according to WHO's estimates of additional heat deaths from climate warming
apps.who.int/iris/handle/10…
here from ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… Image
As we saw with malnutrition, climate will not make deaths go up, but slow progress slightly
And with malaria,
Read 7 tweets

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