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Babak

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22 Mar, 5 tweets, 3 min read

@MacroCharts

While #sentiment for gold is most definitely depressed and close to historic extremes...

chart via @MacroCharts

The Bullish Percent index for the gold miners/equity sector is not as extreme:

Here's another breadth metric, the percent above 200EMA. It fell to almost 10% on Mar 8th and since then it has bounced strongly:

The Hulbert Gold Newsletter #Sentiment Index tracking the long/short recommendation of stock newsletters focusing on precious metals fell to an extremely pessimistic level earlier this month:

thestreet.com/investing/gold…

FYI: Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index has recovered from its recent extreme pessimistic depths (see above) but remains relatively low at ~22%.

IOW gold timing newsletters tracked are on average recommending -22% short exposure to #gold.

$GLD $HUI $XAU #contrarian

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More from @TN

Babak

@TN

8 Apr

@WillieDelwiche

Quick look at a few #sentiment charts:

Investor Intelligence newsletter sentiment metric continues to recover with bulls 60.8% (+6.4%), bears 16.7% (-.8%) and the correction camp at 22.5% (-5.6%)

chart via @WillieDelwiche

@WillieDelwiche

Retail investor #sentiment much more optimistic with those expecting the stock market to continue to rally at the highest levels since January 3rd 2018:

chart via @WillieDelwiche

@hmeisler

The 4 week MA of bearish AAII respondents is close to a record low as well:

chart via @hmeisler

Read 10 tweets

Babak

@TN

7 Apr

Checking in with the options market, the very LT trend remains clearly bullish (all major MAs in sustained synchronized downtrend):

While the market has accelerated higher, the short term standardized equity put/call ratio remains surprisingly neutral(ish):

The only recent bullish option signal I noticed was from ISEE's Call/Put ratio which opened up a significant gap between its 10d MA vs 50d MA (see below). This was similar to late October 2020:

Read 4 tweets

Babak

@TN

7 Mar

The view from 30,000 ft... a very long term chart of stock market #valuation (via 3Edge):

Similar, but slightly different #valuation gauge from Bridgewater:

S&P 500 Price to Forward Earnings Ratio remains below its pre-pandemic highs but still very stretched historically #valuation

via NDR h/t CMG

Read 5 tweets

Babak

@TN

24 Oct 19

Lowry Research 1/7:

"the forces of Supply and Demand suggest the market is consolidating its gains from the Dec 24 2018 and June 4 2019 lows through this sideways trading rather than forming a significant topping pattern."

edgeandodds.com/smart-investin…

Lowry Research 2/7:

"Thus, the probabilities are this period of consolidation will be resolved to the upside through a rally that carries to new all-time highs. (…) Historically, breadth tends to lead price in moving to new highs."

Lowry Research 3/7:

"Thus, if precedent holds, the new highs in the various Adv-Dec Lines reinforce the probabilities the market’s current sideways movement will be followed by a rally that carries the major price indexes to new highs in the months ahead.”

Read 8 tweets

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