Tweet

Tracy Taylor, DPT

22 Mar, 13 tweets, 6 min read

@APDillon_

1/ @APDillon_ @PeteKaliner @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC @HeagartyWCBOE NC SC-2 Trends thru 2/16/21 including current data/graphs (trends in real time). Discussing thru 2/16 since NCDHHS consistently modifies their dashboard (drives incidence ⬇️). Should be caught up later this wk!

2/ Overall incidence ⬇️ to 8.53% (⬇️ 0.05%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.

3/ Daily incid b/w 5.98%-17.98% (17.98% = reporting issue) over last 14 days. Avg daily incid (2/1-16) =9.15% (⬇️ 2.9% compared to Jan). Avg daily incid each month:
May: 6.8% Sept: 5.7% Jan: 12.0%
June: 7.6% Oct: 6.4% 2/1-16: 9.2%
July: 8.1% Nov: 7.4%
Aug: 6.9% Dec: 10.9%

4/ Avg wkly incid = 7.65% (⬇️ 2.41%). Avg wkly incid over last 3 wks = 9.18%. Avg wkly incid each month:
May: 6.9% Sept: 5.7% Jan: 12.4% June: 7.4% Oct: 6.3% 2/1-16: 9.2%
July: 8.11% Nov: 6.88%
Aug: 7.38% Dec: 10.59%

5/ Rolling 14-day incid avg =8.85%. After mask mandate, rolling 14-day incid fluctuated despite reported mask compliance ~90%. Rolling 14-day avg each month:
May: 6.7% Sept: 5.9% Jan: 12.4%
June: 7.6% Oct: 6.2% 2/1-16: 10.0%
July: 7.9% Nov: 6.9%
Aug: 7.3% Dec: 10.2%

6/ # active cases (49,596) ⬇️d 5th consec wk. I think we will continue to see ⬇️ in cases in Feb; consistent w/flu & PNA. Avg # new cases/day:
May: 583 Sept: 1352 Jan: 7032
June: 1164 Oct: 2065 2/1-16: 4301
July: 1859 Nov: 2996
Aug: 1498 Dec: 5646

7/ # of tests 2/1-16 = 771,599. NCDHHS back fills test data, & today (3/21) tests can be back filled from 2/18 to present.
May: 271,133 Oct: 1,037,783
June: 348,174 Nov: 1,242,860
July: 714,289 Dec: 1,673,424
Aug: 699,911 Jan: 1,896,598
Sept: 773,697

8/ % recovered =92.6%, % active cases =6.0% (⬇️ 1.6%), % deaths (CFR) =1.37%. Mortality rate ⬆️ to 0.108% (expected). Avg # deaths/day =40.43:
Mar: 0.80 July: 21.1 Nov: 36.4
April: 14.4 Aug: 27.77 Dec: 63.7
May: 18 Sept: 26.6 Jan: 90.4
June: 15.3 Oct: 28.9 2/1-16: 49

9/ 0-17 & 18-24 cohorts, where 15 deaths reported out of 219,969 total cases (CFR = 0.00682%) since 6/15. Conversely, 15% of NC COVID cases (127,321) are in 65-75+ cohort, 83% of all NC COVID deaths (9,696) are in this cohort; of these 43.2% have been in congregate settings.

10/ Hosp reporting changed on 11/13, ⬇️ by 326 pts to 1971. NOTE: on 3/21/21, vent avail capacity =75%, ICU avail capacity =24.2% at worst (48% at best), inpatient bed avail capacity =26% at worst (40% at best). Duke region most affected w/ICU beds, w/22 empty staffed (⬆️ 3).

11/ Percent change in active cases, tests, and incidence ⬇️ for 5th consecutive week. That’s a very good sign!

WCPSS reported 38 cases 2/11-2/17 (21 students/16 staff/1 visitor). Private/charter schools report 87 cases (67 students/20 staff).

12/ Covid cases/cohort ⬇️‘d across all ages. Main drivers of Covid transmission =25-49 yrs, 50-64 yrs, then 18-24 yrs. On 2/14, there were 3632 active cases in 50-64 age, 6827 in 25-49 age. There are 5153 active cases COMBINED in 2-24 cohort. This is in ALL of NC, not just Wake.

13/13 Overall, average daily/weekly/rolling 14-day incidence, active cases, hospitalizations, daily cases, and deaths/day all ⬇️. Hospital capacity is no longer an issue.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @DrTracyTaylor

Tracy Taylor, DPT

@DrTracyTaylor

14 Mar

@APDillon_

1/ @APDillon_ @PeteKaliner @Chad_Adams NC SC-2 data post for 2/9/21 w/comparison to 2/2/21 in parentheses unless otherwise noted. I’m still playing catch-up; will try to be within 2 week window within a week!

2/ But FIRST, let me preface data w/ this: as of 3/9, there are ~26,484 active Covid cases in ALL of NC. This means 0.252% of NC pop has Covid. Said in a different way, 99.747% of NC population does NOT have Covid; that’s roughly 10.463 MILLION people who don’t have Covid.

3/ Via NCDHHS, on 2/9 there were 802,065 (+) cases (⬆️ 37,837) & 730,454 recovered cases (⬆️ 46,757), 10,894 deaths (⬆️ 359), w/2,297 hospitalized (⬇️ 426). There were 60,717 active cases in NC (⬇️ 9,279). NCDHHS continues to backfill/edit tests on their dashboard back ~1 month

Read 12 tweets

Tracy Taylor, DPT

@DrTracyTaylor

10 Mar

1/ “... and he said that the school had taken legal advice and been told that they needed to be ‘seen’ to be mitigating risk.”

I believe that wholeheartedly.

2/ Ystrdy my kids had issue w/schl staff taking temp. Each time they’ve gone (today is day #5 since 3/13/2020; NOT by choice but b/c GOVERNOR won’t allow back in schl) they’ve had it taken from car, in ~30°-40° F, at wrist by request. 1 time got puzzled look but request was met.

3/ Yesterday was different. We made the wrist request, a teacher said, “I was told to take it at the forehead,” and started to walk toward the car and point the gun at Thing 2’s forehead. I yelled, “NO” and she stopped. She said, “We have to do it at the forehead.”

Read 8 tweets

Tracy Taylor, DPT

@DrTracyTaylor

9 Mar

1/ Cooper presser. Covid metrics. <1000 cases yesterday. Vax “fast and fair.” Huge milestone. Soon we can hug our loved ones w/out fear of severe illness.” (Aside: some of us never stopped/needed you permission to hug our loved ones.) Thanks vax administrators. We got nat’l recog

2/ for being fast/fair. More schls returning to in-person learning. Others pressing to get kids in schls. It’s a priority. (Aside: if it really was a priority, Cooper could mandate Plan A & tells districts to #FigureItOut.) More signs of hope. Positivity rate consistently ~5%.

3/ Hispitalizations ⬇️. But we can’t stop preventative efforts. Until vax widely available, can’t relax. One day soon we can turn corner. (Aside: when will that be, Cooper?!? Give us DATA/TARGET or you’re going out of constitutional authority to keep us closed.) Vax event in

Read 15 tweets

Tracy Taylor, DPT

@DrTracyTaylor

4 Mar

@APDillon_

1/ @APDillon_ @Chad_Adams @PeteKaliner @JohnLockeNC @jonpsanders NC SC-2 Trends through 2/2/21 including current data on graphs to show how things are trending in real time. Discussing thru 2/2 since NCDHHS consistently modifies their dashboard (drives incidence down).

2/ Overall incidence has ⬆️ for the 12th wk to 8.55% (⬆️ 0.08%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.

3/ Daily incid fluctuated b/w 6.87% & 16.5% (reporting inconsistency) over last 14 days. Jan avg daily incid is 12.0% (⬆️ 1.1% compared to Dec, stat sig). Avg daily incid each month:
May: 6.8% Sept: 5.7% Jan: 12.0%
June: 7.6% Oct: 6.4%
July: 8.1% Nov: 7.4%
Aug: 6.9% Dec: 10.9%

Read 13 tweets

Tracy Taylor, DPT

@DrTracyTaylor

26 Feb

@APDillon_

1/ @APDillon_ @JohnLockeNC @PeteKaliner @Chad_Adams @jonpsanders NC SC-2 Trends thru 1/26/21 including current data on graphs to show how things are trending in real time. Discussing thru 1/26 since NCDHHS consistently modifies their dashboard (drives incidence down).

2/ Overall incidence ⬆️ for 11th wk to 8.47% (⬆️ 0.04%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.

3/ Daily incid b/w 6.5% & 17.1% (reporting inconsistency; see graph) last 14 days. Avg daily incid (1/1-26) =12.5% (⬆️ 1.6% compared to Dec, stat sig). Avg daily incid each month:
May: 6.8% June: 7.6% July: 8.1%
Aug: 6.9% Sept: 5.7% Oct: 6.4%
Nov: 7.4% Dec: 10.9% 1/1-26: 12.5%

Read 13 tweets

Tracy Taylor, DPT

@DrTracyTaylor

24 Feb

1/ Cooper presser: NC metrics, vaccines (65+ and frontline workers). 3/10 more people eligible. More stdts returning to classroom. Getting kids into classrooms critical for their health. Schools serving 96% is stdts will offer in-school instruction (fails to mention NOT plan A).

2/ SB37: reiterates why he won’t sign, but doesn’t say he’ll veto. (Aside: if it really was about the KIDS, why is he stringing them along? Playing politics w/kids’ lives has deleterious long-term effects.) NC trends ⬇️ & stabilized. Cohen: we’ve used data to guide approach.

2/ NC can be proud of our data quality/transparency. 🙄 Bloomberg rated NC as best in nation on vax race/ethnicity quality. (Aside: this doesn’t mean NC doing well w/vax rollout. Shows data/graphs that eerily resemble other historical virus graphs. Hospitalizations still high.

Read 25 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!