Oisín list of things to look out for is a good one...
Albeit I have some slightly different perspectives...
I think "net zero" framing (and therefore even "achieve net zero by 2050 at the latest") is flawed and misleading. Commitment should be a fair share contribution to the Paris temperature goals (Article 2.1 is much more important than 4.1!).
It follows that we need to adopt a national "forever" cumulative GHG budget as a constraint on all mitigation policy. Number need not be in statute - but needs to be explicit (with advice from CCAC and lots of public participation!).
More detail in my JOCCA submission here (albeit essentially none of the substance was taken on board by JOCCA): docs.google.com/a/dcu.ie/viewe…
Separately, Oisín falls for the government bait-and-switch that equates "7% per year to 2030" with "51% reduction by 2030", and now only ever mentions the latter. But the two are not generally equivalent (in warming terms). Just not.
Oisín mentions quote attributed to @RichardbrutonTD that the PfG commitment "was about a best endeavours approach." That has been @FineGael's consistent framing. But in a crisis, the correct question is not "are we doing our best?", but "are we doing what's NECESSARY?"
I still hope and expect the new Bill will be an improvement on the status quo. And again, if Oisín's checklist is all ticked that will be better still. But we must not fool ourselves that it is anywhere near enough. It isn't.

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More from @autofac

23 Mar
The revised draft of the new Climate Bill (now "signed off" by government) has landed! I know many long, hard, hours went into this: well done to all, but especially @EamonRyan. Announcement and text here: gov.ie/en/publication…
It's not perfect, no bill could satisfy all demands: but for myself, on first speed read, this version has moved a *long* way and deserves wide support!
It now correctly identifies the overarching goals of climate mitigation policy as being, from the top, the "ultimate objective" of the UNFCCC: stabilization of GHG concentrations at a level preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system...
Read 11 tweets
21 Dec 20
@HannahEDaly @KOSullivanIT @IrishTimes Of course the "profile" of *measures* is different. That's exactly *why* we have to compare their relative effects - accurately! Effects on *temp rise*. If we don't compare *somehow* we have no basis for saying what is "cost-effective" between these sectors.
@HannahEDaly @KOSullivanIT @IrishTimes As for N2O: I don't understand at all. For N2O (as for CO2) GWP-100 and GWP* are identical, and there is no suggestion in the literature of any problem using this as a valid basis for "fungibility" of reductions between them - is there?
@HannahEDaly @KOSullivanIT @IrishTimes But again: "cost-effective" by definition means least cost for a given, consistently defined and assessed, *outcome*. If we don't compare common outcomes (temp rise) across CO2, N2O, CH4 mitigation, we are simply not doing cost-effectiveness analysis.
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov 20
It's been a while in the pipeline, but delighted to share this news! Thanks to all the project team, and to the excellent EPA Steering Committee for their help and support.
Big shoutout to: Mike Jones (TCD), Paul Price aka @swimsure (DCU), Alwynne McGeever and Paul Rice who all made huge contributions to bringing this to completion. And to @EPAResearchNews for providing the essential funding support.
In (very!) brief: It is now scientifically understood that effective climate action sets a finite limit on total future net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from human activities: the "forever" Global Carbon Budget.
Read 14 tweets
10 Sep 20
"Energy transition poses challenges and opportunities for energy security. Read latest @SEAI_ie blog by @dineenden and download recent Energy Security in Ireland report." seai.ie/blog/energy-se…
Some nuggets (a thread, 1/n)...
"Energy security is complex because it comprises many diverse elements. There are also intricate interactions with
the other two important pillars of energy policy: sustainability and competitiveness." <sigh> ienets.eeng.dcu.ie/all-blogs/Ener…
Read 13 tweets
24 Feb 20
@365Ifarm @dcu_ecrn @swimsure We are still working on the seminar materials - but everything presented will certainly be made available afterward.
@365Ifarm @dcu_ecrn @swimsure The project we are reporting on was a small desk-study, reviewing international literature to support @EPAResearchNews scope a possible future larger scale study.
@365Ifarm @dcu_ecrn @swimsure @EPAResearchNews So "proposals" are primarily just about possible scope and methodologies for that future project (if it is indeed progressed).
Read 9 tweets
20 Jan 20
My take on "extreme" carbon cuts (short thread...): irishtimes.com/election2020/v…
Picture a bus travelling at high speed in a snow storm - low visibility, very uncertain emergency stopping distance...
Driver (and passengers) have been advised that bridge over gorge ahead has collapsed. Maybe a km ahead, maybe only a couple of hundred meters. We can't see more clearly.
Read 12 tweets

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