The revised draft of the new Climate Bill (now "signed off" by government) has landed! I know many long, hard, hours went into this: well done to all, but especially @EamonRyan. Announcement and text here:…
It's not perfect, no bill could satisfy all demands: but for myself, on first speed read, this version has moved a *long* way and deserves wide support!
It now correctly identifies the overarching goals of climate mitigation policy as being, from the top, the "ultimate objective" of the UNFCCC: stabilization of GHG concentrations at a level preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system...
... quickly enough for ecosystems to adapt naturally, protect food production, and enable sustainable economic development.
Then after that, are the provisions of the Paris Agreement (in support of the UNFCCC "ultimate objective"), Articles 2 (temperature goals) and 4.1 ("balance of anthropogenic emissions and removals").
These are explicitly the top parameters for the (reformed) Climate Change Advisory Council to refer to in drafting a recommended rolling 15-year "carbon budget" programme. That was not very clear in previous draft so a big improvement.
There is language linking the first 10 year budget period (2021-2030) to the programme for government commitment to reduce emissions over that period "by an average of 7% per year"...
Good to get that on a somewhat statutory basis - even if quite obscure and opts for the softer translation of that commitment as meaning an overall 51% reduction in annual emissions by 2030 (the two are not actually the same in general!).
So-called "biogenic methane" still gets multiple mentions. Despite that there's actually no such thing (methane is methane). There are distinct "biogenic" *sources* of methane - but that makes only a very small perturbation to its climate impact.
That's it for the first scan. Maybe more to follow as the dust settles a bit.

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More from @autofac

22 Mar
Oisín list of things to look out for is a good one...
Albeit I have some slightly different perspectives...
I think "net zero" framing (and therefore even "achieve net zero by 2050 at the latest") is flawed and misleading. Commitment should be a fair share contribution to the Paris temperature goals (Article 2.1 is much more important than 4.1!).
Read 8 tweets
21 Dec 20
@HannahEDaly @KOSullivanIT @IrishTimes Of course the "profile" of *measures* is different. That's exactly *why* we have to compare their relative effects - accurately! Effects on *temp rise*. If we don't compare *somehow* we have no basis for saying what is "cost-effective" between these sectors.
@HannahEDaly @KOSullivanIT @IrishTimes As for N2O: I don't understand at all. For N2O (as for CO2) GWP-100 and GWP* are identical, and there is no suggestion in the literature of any problem using this as a valid basis for "fungibility" of reductions between them - is there?
@HannahEDaly @KOSullivanIT @IrishTimes But again: "cost-effective" by definition means least cost for a given, consistently defined and assessed, *outcome*. If we don't compare common outcomes (temp rise) across CO2, N2O, CH4 mitigation, we are simply not doing cost-effectiveness analysis.
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov 20
It's been a while in the pipeline, but delighted to share this news! Thanks to all the project team, and to the excellent EPA Steering Committee for their help and support.
Big shoutout to: Mike Jones (TCD), Paul Price aka @swimsure (DCU), Alwynne McGeever and Paul Rice who all made huge contributions to bringing this to completion. And to @EPAResearchNews for providing the essential funding support.
In (very!) brief: It is now scientifically understood that effective climate action sets a finite limit on total future net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from human activities: the "forever" Global Carbon Budget.
Read 14 tweets
10 Sep 20
"Energy transition poses challenges and opportunities for energy security. Read latest @SEAI_ie blog by @dineenden and download recent Energy Security in Ireland report."…
Some nuggets (a thread, 1/n)...
"Energy security is complex because it comprises many diverse elements. There are also intricate interactions with
the other two important pillars of energy policy: sustainability and competitiveness." <sigh>…
Read 13 tweets
24 Feb 20
@365Ifarm @dcu_ecrn @swimsure We are still working on the seminar materials - but everything presented will certainly be made available afterward.
@365Ifarm @dcu_ecrn @swimsure The project we are reporting on was a small desk-study, reviewing international literature to support @EPAResearchNews scope a possible future larger scale study.
@365Ifarm @dcu_ecrn @swimsure @EPAResearchNews So "proposals" are primarily just about possible scope and methodologies for that future project (if it is indeed progressed).
Read 9 tweets
20 Jan 20
My take on "extreme" carbon cuts (short thread...):…
Picture a bus travelling at high speed in a snow storm - low visibility, very uncertain emergency stopping distance...
Driver (and passengers) have been advised that bridge over gorge ahead has collapsed. Maybe a km ahead, maybe only a couple of hundred meters. We can't see more clearly.
Read 12 tweets

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