In the next 30 days:
- #covid19 vaccine supply will ⬆️ dramatically
- Vaccine demand will fall in many places
- As the supply/ demand paradigm reverses, cases will likely rise (spring break), and more contagious variants will likely become the dominant strain in much of US.1/
It’s therefore critical that we not just hear talk about, but start to see from the federal and state level that vaccines are being sent to and administered by:
-primary care physicians
-faith organizations
-workplaces
-HBCUs
-Health centers
-Other trustrd local partners
2/
We also need clear plans + visible execution on:
-More mobile vax offerings
-On demand, no appointment 1st vax offerings
-Customized, focus group driven PSAs promoting vaccine confidence in an array of communities with trusted spokespersons
3/
It’s #marchmadness & the game is on the line. We either lock in & win the game now, or succumb to our opponent’s full court press & get forced into overtime. Federal resources & guidance + state leadership + local execution + each of us running the right plays, is how we win! 4/4
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I literally almost had to cancel the circus once due to a tuberculosis case- I can’t imagine making the call to cancel a #MarchMadness game. But Dr. Caine with MCHD is a friend, and the sharpest public health officer I know. She made a tough call, but the right one. Safety1st.👍🏽
We should honestly be thanking all of the public health officials & support staff doing the testing and helping maintain a safe environment for the players. And we must remember the tournament can and likely will be further affected moving forward. There are no guarantees here.
Attempting #MarchMadness is certainly a worthwhile endeavor, but we must remember it is a massive experiment. We will learn from it & it will help us as we learn to live with #COVID19. But there’s still a lot of spread, and as such, the best protocols can still fail to protect.
I hate to be the party pooper on the “until we get to herd immunity” goal post, but if defined as 85%+ (Fauci and others) and most hospitals/ nursing homes can’t even get that level of compliance, we’re not likely to get there as a society. We need to discuss this differently...
“Herd immunity” isn’t a on/ off switch- it’s a risk spectrum. And it differs based on the setting/ person/ other mitigation measures taken. For example, nursing homes seeing much lower spread and death, despite lower than 90% total vaccination rates in most...
And I’d LOVE to see 90% plus vax rates, but telling people / leading them to believe we can’t reopen or stop wearing masks until then, risks losing many people/ being seen as (for good reason) dishonest, or unrealistic. We need to lay out honest and achievable goals...
Very important distinction: giving flexibility for states to delay 2nd dose a few weeks (while production ramps is) is NOT about denying a 2nd dose. It’s about acknowledging the benefit NOW of ⬆️ the number of people who can get 92% protection vs giving some 94% protection. 👇🏽
This is not about 1 dose vs 2 (at least from my POV). I still feel the 2nd dose is important for variants, and likely for durability of protection. But in the real world (ie NOW) the way we best stop spread and variants is to give more people some (92%) protection.
With us approaching 20% vax rates in some places/ groups, here’s a real world possibility:
A) 10 strangers in a room, 2 fully vaxed (94% protection)
B) 10 strangers in a room, 4 with 1 vax dose (92% protection).
Which room do you feel has greater risk of spread right now?🤔
Good protection for many (w/ 1 shot) is better than great protection for a few. 2000 people a day are dying because they can’t get a 1st #covid19 shot- not because they can’t get a 2nd...
Pivots on mask wearing and on school closures show advice can be well intended, and scientifically grounded, yet still need to be changed based on the reality on the ground. The risk for most of no protection at all >> than the risk of breakthrough variants at this point.
And as @Atul_Gawande has pointed out, simply affording states the okay to be somewhat flexible could unleash millions of doses sitting on shelves (out of fear of not having the golden 2nd dose for people, and getting in trouble). Push out all doses NOW, and lean into production!
Why should I get a vaccine for disease with a 99% “recovery rate” (ie according to many studies only 1% of those infected will die)? 🤷🏽♂️
It’s a fair question, and here’s a short 🧵 explaining why. 1/?
In science and medicine we look at both morbidity (the consequences of having a illness or condition) & mortality (the number/ chance of death due to said illness/ condition). The mortality of #covid19 is 1%, but the consequences of getting/ having it can be far greater.
2/?
Around 97-99% of people who get #covid19 will live. But even if you live, that doesn’t mean you won’t get sick as hell/ end up in the hospital/ have long term health issues.
It also doesn’t mean that a 1% death rate is acceptable (1% of US population = 3 million people).
3/?
Answer: Absolutely NOT! The vaccines help your body make one of the numerous proteins the virus has, so your body can produce virus fighting antibodies. But there’s no virus in the vaccine, so you can’t get Covid from it!
FAQ: Isn’t the J&J vaccine much less effective than the others?
Answer: the different vaccines were tested at different times, in different countries. But the J&J vaccine (as well as the other two) are almost 100% effective at preventing severe disease/ hospitalization/ death!