Thread by @NashSGC

V. interesting perspective here from @anandMenon1 & @jdportes on the current situation between EU/UK.

We got a deal, but no goodwill. This was always likely, but the deterioration in relations this yr has been extraordinary nonetheless.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

Last yr’s trade negotiations were unique, not least because they began with the negative intent of pushing the two negotiating partners further apart (trade negotiations normally start from the positive intent of bringing partners closer together).

The UK & EU spent 2020 deciding how distant they wanted to be from each other, and the extent to which they were willing to damage their strategic relationship. The negotiations were acrimonious by nature.

However, the speed with which UK/EU relations have deteriorated in 2021 has, I think, caught everyone by surprise.

Relations have been soured by a combination of pettiness (UK position on diplomatic representation for the EU), ineptitude (EU decision on Art 16), the cauldron of politics in a pandemic (everything related to the vaccine)…

…& the painful reality of leaving the SM & CU (see @rdanielkelemen’s enormous threadendium of trade disruptions).

https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1348964732104007680?s=20

However, it is more than just bad decisions & the econ. reality of Brexit that are fuelling a deterioration in relations. There are structural issues which mean that the UK & EU are now entering a new, post-negotiations, phase of perpetual disputes.

The most important of these is the complete absence of trust between Britain’s Brexiter govt. & the EU.

Both sides expect the worst of the other, & the absence of effective political back channels (itself a consequence, as well as a contributing factor to, the absence of trust), mean that misunderstandings will not only be commonplace, but...

...viewed as malevolent, with the consequences being messily thrashed out in the public domain.

Add to this the political benefits for the UK govt. of perpetual grievance (as set out by @rafaelbehr), and...

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

…European voters’ general disinterest in Brexit (Irish voters being the exception to this rule), and it becomes clear that there is little political reason for either side to do the hard work needed to improve relations.

Given this, it is likely that the UK/EU relationship will continue to sour, at least until the political protagonists change, or some external shock forces both sides realise that it is better to be strategic partners than feuding neighbours.