Some claim we can never absolutely decouple economic growth from CO2.
However, the UK is an example of how emission reductions need not come at the expense of prosperity.
Since 1990, the UK's real GDP has increased 80%; at the same time, their emissions have fallen 50%.
And, yes, this just includes territorial emissions; some of the decline since 1990 is associated with offshoring.
But consumption emissions (e.g. from all goods consumed in the UK) have been falling just as rapidly as territorial emissions since 2007: carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-t…
Its not just the UK; here is my home state of California's economic growth and emissions since 1990:
Even China is getting close to absolute decoupling, at least on a per-capita basis:
Here is Germany:
France:
There are of course some countries where GDP growth is still strongly tied to emissions growth (albeit with some declines in emissions intensity of GDP). India, for example:
Also some rich countries are reducing emissions in recent years but are still close to 1990 per-capita levels, such as Australia and Japan.
Lying in the service of what you think is right is still lying. @ClimateOfGavin said nothing of the sort, and you should be ashamed for putting words in his mouth.
We can control the level of warming that occurs. While 1.5C is quite challenging, <2C is increasingly achievable.
Current policies adopted by countries put us on track for around 3ºC of warming by the end of the century, compared to the late 1800s. Including pledges and targets – such as those included in the Paris Agreement – brings this down to around 2.5ºC.
Countries representing around half of global emissions – including China – have pledged to reach net-zero by 2050 or 2060. If these longer term commitments are achieved, it would bring end-of-century warming down close to 2ºC.
One of the best parts about writing for @CarbonBrief is the ability to do in-depth explainers about complex climate and energy issues. Here are a few of my favorites that I worked on over the years.
In recent months three different deep decarbonization scenarios have been produced from high-resolution grid integration models. In a new analysis at @TheBTI, my colleague @erikolsonn and I look at lessons they provide about what is needed: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
A thread: 1/19
The three models we examine are Princeton's Net Zero America (NZA) project (by @JesseJenkins et al), the @VibrantCE Zero By Fifty scenario, and results by a team of researchers led by Jim Williams at USF. 2/
All three take a deep-dive into how US could reach net-zero emissions by 2050, down to level of where each new generating facility might be located, where transmission lines would be built, and how electricity sources can meet hourly demand in different regions of the country 3/
There is some truth in Gates's suggestion that making new clean energy tech cheap for can be more important than deploying existing clean tech.
But it neglects the fact that a big part of making clean tech cheap is deployment: driving economies of scale and learning-by-doing.
We should recognize the need to do both: accelerate the deployment of existing clean tech to further drive down costs (particularly for more nascent clean tech like EVs that are on the cusp of cost-competitiveness with fossil alternatives) AND dramatically scale up RD&D.
Here is where I could see geoengineering playing a role: say, at some point in the future we have gotten our emissions under control, but climate sensitivity was high and we've locked in 2.5-3C warming even though we thought we would limit warming to 2C. 2/5
We discover some previously unknown planetary-scale climate feedback mechanism with hysteresis that will lead to substantial additional warming if temperatures remain >2.5C. We need to actively suck lots of CO2 from the atmosphere to get temperatures down to safe levels. 3/5
There has been a lot of confusion over the drivers of the Texas blackouts. While more will become clear in the coming days, neither renewables nor insufficient gas capacity were the culprits. Rather, it was the lack of resiliency of to extreme cold conditions.
A thread: 1/9
Texas has seen an explosion of cheap wind power in recent years. Wind now produces around 20% of Texas' electricity. However, at the same time Texas has also been building a lot of gas capacity; gas generally works well with wind, able to quickly ramp up to fill in gaps. 2/
Because it is intermittent, the grid manager @ERCOT_ISO does not rely much on wind to meet extreme demand events such as the one we are experiencing right now. Rather, they have enough gas (and nuclear/coal) capacity on standby just in case high demand coincides with low wind. 3/