Thread by @marcpourroy

My paper with Antonia López-Villavicencio, "Fed's Policy Changes and Inflation in Emerging Markets: Lessons from the Taper Tantrum" is just published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

We use the taper tantrum to measure the effects of a sudden depreciation of the exchange rate. We treat this announcement in the USA as an exogenous shock in emerging markets and use a difference-in-differences approach. 2/4

We show that, before the tantrum, the impact of exchange rate changes on inflation is low in both industrialized economies and emerging market economies. However, the tantrum increased the gap between groups. 3/4

The tantrum impacted inflation in EMEs regardless of the exchange rate regime or central bank practices. Nevertheless, in the period following the tantrum, inflation in economies with flexible exchange rate, inflation target or highly credible central bank was lower. 4/4