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Dougie Kass

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24 Mar

@realmoney

Freebie (summary of @realmoney opener)
Mar 24, 2021 | 07:50 AM EDT DOUG KASS
You Done Tore Out My Heart and Stomped That Sucker Flat
"You keep on stompin'

And my heart is on the floor..."

- Lewis Gizzard, You Done Tore Out My Heart and Stomped That Sucker Flat

In yesterday's opening missive, "The Market Is a Hard Dog to Keep Under the Porch," I argued that the U.S. stock market remained materially overpriced and that investors and traders should consider using market rallies to reduce equity exposure and to raise cash:

* Value is stretched now (financial and energy) while growth valuations are vulnerable to higher interest rates.

* The current cash price of the S&P Index exceeds my calculus of "fair market value" by a wide 20%.

* The rapid increase in supply in SPACs poses a market threat.

Read 7 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

24 Mar

@realmoney

Freebie from @realmoney

Mar 23, 2021 | 08:12 AM EDT DOUG KASS
The Market Is a Hard Dog to Keep Under the Porch
* The U.S. stock market remains materially overpriced

* I would use market rallies to reduce equity exposure

* Value is stretched now (financials and energy)

while growth valuations are vulnerable to higher interest rates

* I am looking towards some SPACtacular failures in 2021-23

* Too many are forgetting the lessons of 2020 - that while the vaccine rollout is great news, many times we have seen that the economy is not the markets

* And the markets are not the economy

* In March, 2020 we bought the panic, as the S&P sold at more than a 20% discount to intrinsic value, and we ignored fear

* In March, 2021 we should consider selling the optimism, as the S&P is selling at more than a 20% premium to

Read 22 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

19 Mar

@realmoney

@realmoney

Mar 18, 2021 | 05:00 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Assessing the Damage
My Takeaways
* The damage today was broad-based
* I ended the day with a medium-sized net short exposure (down from very large at the beginning of the day)
* Banks may have had a buying climax today
* Tech

(especially of a speculative-kind) remains overvalued

I recently wrote that my (negative) market view has rarely been at such odds with the generally bullish consensus.

This remains the case.

Based on my view of "fair market value" the S&P is still about 20% overvalued.

That does not mean, however, that an overvalued market needs to return to its value -- as markets tend to spend long periods as overvalued (but only short periods of undervaluation, like in December, 2018 and in March, 2020).

It does mean the there is very little "margin of

Read 11 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

18 Mar

@realmoney

@realmoney
Mar 18, 2021 | 05:00 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Assessing the Damage
My Takeaways
* The damage today was broad-based
* I ended the day with a medium-sized net short exposure (down from very large at the beginning of the day)
* Banks may have had a buying climax today

* Tech (especially of a speculative-kind) remains overvalued

I recently wrote that my (negative) market view has rarely been at such odds with the generally bullish consensus.

This remains the case.

Based on my view of "fair market value" the S&P is still about 20%

overvalued.

That does not mean, however, that an overvalued market needs to return to its value -- as markets tend to spend long periods as overvalued (but only short periods of undervaluation, like in December, 2018 and in March, 2020).

It does mean the there is very little

Read 4 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

8 Mar

@realmoney

Coming up on @realmoney
Money Never Sleeps
* If you are intensely serious about trading sometimes you won't get much sleep
* Last night I moved back into a net short exposure (I sold Nasdaq and S&P futures early Sunday evening)
* The pivot from growth to value (that I have

expected over the last six months has intensified (and I expect it to continue)
* Avoid most technology stocks ($ARKK is my short proxy play) and consider holding on to and buying value on weakness (e.g. banks)
* After reloading on strength midweek, I remain short a number of

speculative gewgaws ($MARA, $CAN, $PLUG, $GBTC, $RIOT, etc.)
* Expect the continued regime of higher volatility to continue

"Somebody reminded me the other night that I once said "greed is good." I swear I don't remember it but it sounds like something I would say in the

Read 4 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

4 Mar

@realmoney

Ok this is a good one.
Coming up on @realmoney
The Day the Liquidity Died
* We appear to be in a new regime of heightened volatility
* And in a market without memory from day to day
* Market focus, as we have predicted, has pivoted violently from growth to value
* I expect

this pivot to continue (and I own banks in size)
* And, with it, a loss of liquidity, as redemptions rise and many try to escape from the previously popular high tech darlings
“Music gives a soul to the universe, wings to the mind, flight to the imagination, and life to

everything.”
– Plato

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