Should @NATO reorient itself to counter 🇨🇳, as recommended recently by @sb_moller?

As it turns out, doing so is consistent with the original vision of the "Atlantic Pact".

[THREAD]
washingtonpost.com/outlook/chinas…
Consider three aspects of how the "Atlantic Pact" was viewed when originally negotiated.
First, it was recognized that the alliance could have a reach outside of Europe -- potentially as far as China.
The general framework of the alliance was laid out during the ABC ("American" "British" "Canadian") Talks in spring 1948.

According to the minutes of the talks, the participants had explicitly discussed mentioning China in the treaty's preamble as a region of importance.
The source of that passage is the Foreign Relations of the United States series

Link: search.library.wisc.edu/digital/AKIGLE…
Second, the "Atlantic Pact" was not conceived as a purely military alliance.
To get to the core of NATO's original purpose, one needs to go back to the initial discussions around the alliance

The initial idea for the "Atlantic Pact" came from British Foreign Minister Ernest Bevin
In early 1948, Bevin met with his French, Canadian, & American counterparts to discuss devising "some western democratic system...a sort of spiritual federation of the west."

The goal was "To create confidence in Western Europe that further Communist inroads would be stopped."
I discuss Bevin's initial proposals in chapter 5 of 👇
amazon.com/Arguing-about-…
The concern at the time wasn't Soviet invasion: it was an undermining of democratic systems from within (via Soviet influence).

That's why the "Prague Coup", according to State Department official Jack Hickerson, " scarred the bejesus out of everyone"
To achieve this, the participants at the ABC talks felt the pact should include "those states sharing western civilization."

Note that @NATO might have been WTO with the `W' standing for "Western"
The source of that passage is again the Foreign Relations of the United States series

Link: search.library.wisc.edu/digital/AKIGLE…
It's interesting that the ABC participants thought limiting the membership to only states possessing "Western Civilization" would exclude Greece -- despite, you know, Greek culture being considered the "foundation" of Western Civ 🤷‍♂️
It should be noted that the "Western Civilization" orientation of the pact was part of the French argument for why Italy had to be included: despite the other pact members having just fought a war against Italy, you can't leave out "Roman culture" (another Western civ foundation)
And this discussion was eventually worked into the Treaty's preamble
I'll admit that this whole discussion is a bit too "clashy" for me.

But there's no denying that the ideas were present at the creation of NATO
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
The main point is that the "Atlantic pact" was not envisioned as purely a deterrence-oriented military alliance against Soviet tanks & nukes...even if that is what it eventually became

cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Third, don't forget Article II of the North Atlantic Treaty: to forge closer economic and political ties
This is commonly called the "Canadian clause" because Lester B. Pearson, Canadian's Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs at the time, pushed for its inclusion. Pearson wanted the provision included so that the "Atlantic Pact" wasn't solely a "military alliance".
There are additional arguments that one could make in support of @sb_moller's proposal, such as the expanded conception of @NATO's purpose -- read, "democracy promotion" -- after the Cold War
link.springer.com/article/10.105…
And one could indeed argue against the proposal, saying that regardless of how @NATO was originally conceived, it should play no role outside Europe today.

Of course, I think that argument is over...and has been for some time
press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…
But the main point is that expanding @NATO's geographic reach & missions scope, while inconsistent with its name, is not inconsistent with how it was originally conceived.

[END]

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More from @ProfPaulPoast

20 Mar
Should Americans be concerned about the US National Debt?

As I tell my students: No.

[THREAD]
This thread is inspired by seeing, in the wake of the $1.9 Trillion stimulus bill, much fretting over the size of the national debt.

But as @mcopelov has emphasized time and time again: such concerns are largely misplaced

Read 31 tweets
17 Mar
How much does 🇺🇸 spend on defense compared to the rest of 🌏?

That's a hard question to answer. For starters, we don't precisely know how much 🇺🇸 spends on defense (& that's the easy part).

[THREAD]
This thread is inspired by a debate several folks were having recently about comparing US defense spending to that of other countries
So how much does the US spend on defense?

One might think this is simply a budgeting and accounting exercise. That's part of it, but it's actually a conceptual exercise: what do we mean by "defense" or "national security"

jstor.org/stable/2145138…
Read 18 tweets
10 Mar
Why did the US invade Iraq in 2003?

Retaliation for 9/11? A demonstration of US power? Saddam Hussein was a threat? Bush had a personal vendetta to settle? A mistake? All of the above?

The reality is that we don't know.

[THREAD]
This thread is partly motivated by what @_danigilbert recently observed

To start, let's give some background and review the war's lead-up.
Read 53 tweets
6 Mar
The @WhiteHouse released an "Interim National Security Strategic Guidance" this week. After reading it, I'm sure international relations scholars will go.....hmmmmmm 🤔

[THREAD]

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Don't get me wrong. I agree with @MatthewKroenig that releasing this document is a good thing: folks are anxious to know more about what "America is Back" means. This document offers some...well..."guidance" (hence the name)

And given how early it is being released (for example, 2017 NSS wasn't released until December of Trump's first year) sends a useful signal about intentions

Read 32 tweets
27 Feb
Possible 🇺🇸 arms sales restrictions on 🇸🇦 raises a question: Is there such a thing as a "defensive weapon"? Can some weapons ONLY be used to STOP attacks?

International Relations scholars are (mostly) unanimous: No

[THREAD]
reuters.com/article/usa-sa…
To be clear, it is possible that a weapon will only be USED to stop attacks, not attack others.

After all, that's the heart of "self-defense" clause in Article 51 of the UN Charter

legal.un.org/repertory/art5…
Also, it is possible that a state's military will have a "defensive strategy" -- i.e. non-expansionist -- rather than an "offensive strategy" -- i.e. expansionist.

Indeed, that is a core part of the theory in my book "Arguing About Alliances"
cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/978150174…
Read 25 tweets
24 Feb
What causes civil wars? Are they driven by ethnic differences? By poverty? Something else?

Here is how my Quantitative Security students will explore those questions.

[THREAD]
Unlike the quantitative study of interstate war, civil wars didn't receive big attention until the 1990s. That decade witnessed a spike in the number of internal wars, especially relative to "inter-state wars".

Source: ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace & @UCDP
An important early paper seeking to identify trends in civil wars was by Licklider in @apsrjournal
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Read 31 tweets

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