Thread by @jonworth

Trying to piece together what's happening with AstraZeneca, 💉 supply to UK and EU, and... why an export ban might be the only thing the EU has got

A long and complex 🧵 - but necessary as this story is damned complex!

1/16

So @SebTallents gave me the first link, that helped start all of this...

Halix was part of the initial University of Oxford consortium, that has the first (so far unpublished) contract with UK Govt

News here:
b3cnewswire.com/202004152058/h…

List here:
covid19vaccinetrial.web.ox.ac.uk/sponsors-and-p…

2/16

UK's Cobra Biologics is also listed as in the consortium, and like Halix, has been in from early on:
news.yahoo.com/uks-cobra-biol…

As has Oxford Biologica:
business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/…

3/16

The CP Pharmaceuticals plant in Wrexham can be eliminated here - it does fill and finish - see itv.com/news/wales/202…

4/16

By contrast the Seneffe 🇧🇪 plant that Thermo Fisher Scientific acquired from Novasep in January and manufactures as well is *not* mentioned in this early stage

More on Seneffe here:
reuters.com/article/us-hea…

5/16

Recap

These firms / plants were in from the start
Oxford Biologica / 🏭 Oxford 🇬🇧
Cobra Biologics / 🏭 Keele 🇬🇧
Halix / 🏭 Leiden 🇳🇱

This came later
Novasep, later Thermo Fisher Scientific / 🏭 Seneffe 🇧🇪

6/16

Why does this matter?

AZ CEO, in his interview with @StefanieBolzen of Welt, states that UK plants will supply UK needs first. About 1/3 of the way through, important bit in screenshot

welt.de/politik/auslan…

7/16

There has been an argument about whether that commitment to UK Govt indeed contractual or not. We do not know because the *earlier* UK Govt - Oxford contract is not public, but we know de facto that is what has been happening - UK plants supplying the UK doses

8/16

What what about... Halix 🇳🇱?

Soriot does not mention that plant, but Halix has been in the consortium from the beginning.

Also in the past fortnight there's been barely a peep about Seneffe, but there's been a lot of noise about Halix.

9/16

Could it be that the production from the Halix plant is covered by the earlier contract, in the same way as production from Oxford Biologica & Cobra Biologics are? And hence the UK Government thinks it is entitled to the *entire* production from Halix too?

10/16

Then comes the mystery about the MHRA and EMA authorisations for Halix.

Halix has not been authorised by either as far as we know, while the delay for EMA authorisation is unexplained:
ft.com/content/8e2e99…

See also:

https://twitter.com/delexical/status/1374109438508957702

11/16

But in terms of the numbers, at least from 31 January until now, this is immaterial - dose exports even from an unauthorised plant - would still have to be declared to the European Commission, so some sort of non-authorisation to trick the Commission wouldn't have worked

12/16

In other words: the non-authorisation of Halix is odd, but I do not think it changes anything in the fundamental calculation here. It will be authorised by the EMA this week, multiple sources state

13/16

Here's how to understand all this:

First, leave Seneffe out of it - that supplies EU

Second, as far as UK is concerned, production from Halix is considered the same as Oxford Biologica & Cobra Biologics, i.e. all production from those goes to UK until UK vaccination done

14/16

Third, as far as the EU is concerned, all four plants - Seneffe, Halix, Oxford Biologica and Cobra Biologics - are in their contract with AZ, but they're only getting supply from 1 of the 4, while UK gets supply from 2 of the 4, with Halix still to be decided

15/16

Conclusion: UK knows it's in a stronger contractual position re. Halix, while EU says plant is in EU so should supply the EU

There are 2 possible outcomes I think: either UK concedes something as show of goodwill, or EU imposes export ban *because there's no other option*

16/16