1. 2050 is a strong anchor date for these targets (not surprising given the IPCC Report on 1.5°C). The huge post-2050 chunk we see for countries is solely down to China. Quite a few states and companies are aiming earlier.
2. Despite countries having the most well-developed climate governance (the UNFCCC), those with #NetZero goals still by no means have it all in place. Companies are doing similarly well on setting plans and reporting at least annually.
By the way, countries score 100% on having interim targets (an indicator of near-term action) because they are required to submit NDCs. Companies don't have similar regulations. As @thomasnhale says, corporate #NetZero is the Wild West - although it seems not all are cowboys.
3. We specifically don't judge whether these targets stack up to Paris-consistency, nor whether "offsetting" is inherently right or wrong (tasks for another day!). But one thing we do highlight is a massive lack of disclosure. Plans for offsetting are particularly opaque:
4. Another thing we learned: data collection is really hard. #NetZero information is scattered across the internet, usually partial, often in the form of a press release. If you think the process can be automated, let us know! This time we relied on brilliant volunteers 👏👏👏
5. We hope this study provides much-needed data to support the debates currently brewing over #NetZero. The recent wave of pledges is encouraging. Important gaps need closing otherwise yes, there is a risk of greenwashing.
We need more, and we need better.
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Several papers and reports have flagged that "net-zero" targets allow some level of CDR to balance out residual emissions, and worry that this could dilute action in various ways. They propose that the way to fix this is to keep separate targets for emissions and removals.
This isn't a theoretical argument, it's live now. The UK and other have set net zero targets; the EU is actively thinking about whether/how to include CDR.
Also vital will be a skilled and enthusiastic Programme Manager (it's not all about the academics!). You will work closely with me, @SamFankahuser and Myles Allen, and I will consider you to be THE most important person in @OxfordNetZero 💪
Carbon offsetting is the reduction of your own balance of emissions by gaining credit for certified emission reduction or removal carried out by another actor.
It's not for everyone. Objections exist, both on grounds of ethics (is it right?) and practice (does it work?). But offsetting is widespread and set to grow as countries, cities and businesses all strive to set and meet #netzero targets...
The projection on the above chart was made in 2018. Very much pre-lockdown. The CCC report notes that estimates for UK 2020 emissions now range from a 2% to a 13% decline on 2019.
(2/n)
If we start from a 2 or 13% reduction in 2020 and continue the 2018 projections forward, you get the range within the dark blue dotted lines here:
Some interesting stuff about removal technologies in there - government realising they will likely be important for net zero. Not in scope for now but name checked as a topic to come back to in review (as soon as 2023).
It's an intriguing question how to include removals in an emissions scheme - is it the best way to get them to scale up, or will it lead to unexpected bad things? Responses to the consultation are divided. Would be a good topic for some clever researchers to look at.
In February I am joining Oxford University to start up an exciting new research effort in greenhouse gas removals (#GGR#NETs#CDR...). And no doubt other things around #NetZero, science & policy, etc. @TheSmithSchool@oxmartinschool
@TheSmithSchool@oxmartinschool While I am very much looking forward to getting back into academia, it's been a real pleasure working with the climate scientists and others in @beisgovuk (many lurk on Twitter - you know who you are!)