A few observations on #IsraelElex4:
1) Israeli politics remains divided and dead locked. 2)Netanyahu's situation has not changed significantly. His next coalition will be as fragile and unstable as the previous one. 3) No credible challenger to Bibi has emerged 4) The Center >
4) The mostly secular Center (Lapid+ Gantz) remains a viable force. This bloc is the main opposition to the Right. 5) Merav Michaeli brought Labor back from the dead. But even with Meretz, they remain marginal
6) Likud post-Netanyahu is on track to follow Labor's gradual disintegration. There's not much there other than loyalty to King-Bibi. 7) Saar's alternative to Bibi and Likud failed. Someone else (Bennett? Shaked?) will lead this effort in #IsraelElex5. ...TBC
8) Ramifications of the split in the (no longer) United Arab List remain unclear. If splinter Ra'am gets in (4 or even 5 seats), they can determine everything. Abbas (head of Islamist-leaning Ra'am) stresses need for improving lives of Arab citizens, and flirted with Netanyahu ..
9) Does @gantzbe emerge as most likely PM after Bibi, as of November?Gantz and his party were written-off by polls, analysts. Wrong. He's the Big Surprise of #IsraelElex4.

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More from @GeraldNGOM

7 Feb
The @IntlCrimCourt is not a serious threat; no #Israelis will be tried,screaming headlines notwithstanding. It's another performance in the ongoing propaganda war led by intl law cultists ("lawfare"), including powerful NGOs, to demonize #Israel, fuelling incitement & violence
2/n The specifics of claims by #ICC prosecutors & judges cited in media reports are window dressing for a vicious political campaign to demonize Israel. It's not about law, policies or "occupation"; if #Israel were to go back to pre-1967 lines, the delegitimization would continue
3/ Tens of millions of $, £, €, CHF, NOK, etc are behind 20 yrs of NGO #ICC lawfare, led by @hrw @amnesty @fidh_un @btselem @BtSIsrael @AdalahEnglish @AlHaq .... Massive & irresponsible & accountable funding weaponized intnl law & #HumanRights to attack #Israel. Follow the money
Read 5 tweets
2 Sep 20
Thread on total irrelevance of 🇪🇺Europe in Middle East diplomacy (highlighted again in 🇮🇱🇦🇪 events) and why this matters.
cc @EUinIsrael @JosepBorrellF @HelgaSchmid_EU @vonderleyen @eu_eeas
1/n @EL_AL_AIRLINES plane from Tel Aviv to UAE carried no European officials and no 🇪🇺 flags. And Europe had no role in the 1979 Israel-Egypt and 1994 Jordan-Israel peace treaty. Why not?
2/n Almost all EU diplomats, foreign policy officials, "experts", etc operate through simplistic misguided prisms based on post-1945 images of normative (soft) power, rules-based international order, etc.Totally inapplicable to MidEast - as a result, Europe has little credibility
Read 10 tweets
16 Jul 20
Just another day at the @UNHumanRights Council as the chair and VP censure me for this 90-second rebuttal to Agenda Item 7's "special rapporteur for singling out Israel, Michael Lynk", and his blatant violation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. @NGOmonitor ⬇️ ImageImage
Full session here: webtv.un.org/watch/id-sr-on…
My rebuttal starts at 1:37:18. Speaking truth to abusive NGO power is what we do; Mr. Lynk didn't like being held to account -- his response at the end (1:46:40) ⬇️
Excerpt: "Lynk's reports whitewash Palestinian terror and incitement, and distort factual evidence beyond recognition, as in the case of the so-called 'Great March of Return' along the Gaza border."
Read 4 tweets
1 Mar 20
Tomorrow, Israelis vote for the 3rd time in a year with little expectation of a clear outcome. Our society, (like others) is deadlocked, without the majority needed in a multi-party parliamentary system. #IsraElex2020 1/n
On the plus side, and despite intense differences, passion, and uncertainty, the democratic process is respected - no street violence. The system is strained, but continues to function. Not trivial. 2/n
The two main Jewish blocs are divided by culture including religious tradition (or secularism), socio-economic class, perspectives re Palestinians, etc. The differences are folded into core division over @netanyahu - one bloc passionately for, the other against. 3/n
Read 5 tweets

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