Reuters published a detailed report on why Brazil’s military failed spectacularly in its attempt to reduce deforestation in the Amazon reuters.com/investigates/s…

As I wrote last year, this is exactly what Bolsonaro wanted - and he made sure that the military would never succeed.
The impact on the international reputation of Brazil's VP Mourão &the military is devastating: they agreed to participate in elaborate window-dressing that cost hundreds of millions & failed to convince a single observer that Brazil's gov was serious about combating deforestation
When Bolsonaro told foreign governments that he'd send the armed forces to preserve the Amazon, I remember speaking to a European diplomat who told me he was taken aback: "He thinks we're total idiots". Literally everyone knew the whole operation was just for show.
After all, previous Brazilian governments have strengthened a highly effective environmental watchdog - Ibama - made up of people who know how to combat deforestation. Rather than sending troops, Bolsonaro could have increased Ibama's size. But he chose to sideline them.

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More from @OliverStuenkel

24 Mar
During today's hearing in Brazil's Senate, Bolsonaro's advisor for int'l affairs Filipe Martins (left) made a hand gesture that has come to be linked to white supremacist views, similar to that made by the terrorist of Christchurch (right) who killed 51 people in a mosque in 2019 Image
Filipe Martins also uses a poem by Dylan Thomas, known by its first line, "Do Not Go Gentle into That Good Night", as his twitter profile background -- the same poem cited by the terrorist of Christchurch in his online manifesto. Image
The usage of the phrase in Martin's twitter profile has led to strong criticism from Brazil's diplomatic community after the Christchurch shooting in March 2019. Below an article on the matter in Folha de São Paulo:

www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/2019/04/…
Read 6 tweets
18 Mar
Irrespective of what you think about Lula: the former president's capacity to engage an international audience and directly impact the way Brazil is seen abroad is just remarkable. His CNN interview with Amanpour helps him strengthen his narrative for the 2022 elections 🧵👇
By urging Biden, on US-American television, to call an emergency coronavirus summit, Lula seeks to send a message to voters in Brazil: if he wins, Brazil will no longer be a ridiculed pariah, but seek to actively participate in global decision-making processes -- like it used to.
Any other presidential candidate would have sounded preposterous by urging the US president to do anything. But Lula, one of Latin America's most experienced statesmen, managed to pull it off coming across as fairly presidential.
Read 9 tweets
17 Mar
How Will Lula Shake Up Brazil’s Political Landscape? @ValeskaZanin, @czmartins, @danrunde, Michael Shifter, Adriana Dantas and I wrote about what the unexpected annulment of Lula’s conviction means for Brazil.
thedialogue.org/analysis/how-w…
Fachin’s decision is unlikely to be overturned. Lula is already a de-facto candidate for the 2022 presidential election and probably a competitive one at that. Lula had been leading the polls when his conviction and prison sentence in 2018 turned Bolsonaro into the front-runner.
Since he took office, Bolsonaro has not faced an organized opposition, and no other politician has been able to fill the vacuum Lula left behind, in part because center-right parties such as the PSDB, Democratas &Novo decided not to unequivocally distance themselves from the prez
Read 6 tweets
13 Mar
This is what President Bolsonaro's son Eduardo, a powerful congressman, has to say about the storming of the US Capitol on January 6: "If it had been better organized, they would have taken the Capitol and made specific demands previously established by the invaders."🧵👇
"[Better prepared], they would have had the military power (...) to kill (....) the congressmen they despise.”

Brazil's Foreign Minister called the US Capitol invaders "good people". Bolsonaro often talks about voter fraud in the US elections and says "it could be worse here."
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro is also attempting to relax gun laws in the country, making it easier to import guns and increase the amount of ammunition a person can buy in a year.
Read 12 tweets
11 Mar
Em momentos nos quais o mundo está em transição, países com lideranças bem-preparadas podem aproveitar para galgar posições, enquanto outros correm o risco de perder relevância. Com a pandemia do novo coronavírus não será diferente. 🧵👇
Enquanto países como Tailândia, Vietnã e Nova Zelândia conseguiram evitar elevadas taxas de infecção, outros, como China e Rússia, estão aumentando sua influência global por meio da “diplomacia da vacina.”
O Brasil, pelo que tudo indica, é um dos grandes perdedores geopolíticos do momento atual: não apenas saiu da lista das 10 maiores economias do mundo durante a pandemia, mas também vive um colapso inédito de sua imagem diante da estratégia negacionista de seu presidente.
Read 6 tweets
8 Mar
Brazil: The decision by a Supreme Court judge to annul Lula's convictions still needs to go to the full court for review. If the ex-president's political rights are restored, however, it'll reshape Brazil's political landscape. A few thoughts 🧵👇
1) The biggest beneficiary, of course, is the Workers' Party (PT), which would probably reassert its control over the left. Lula would have a good chance at making it into the run-off against Bolsonaro. Lula could be expected to chose a centrist(or even center-right) VP candidate
2) Bolsonaro is also likely to benefit politically. With a catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic, high unemployment, rising inflation and an economic collapse, the president can go back to what he likes best: fight an anti-communist crusade and benefit from anti-PT sentiment.
Read 9 tweets

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